AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS. 3$7 



In the above, we have assumed the absolute correctness of the 

 American official estimates, which we admit is assuming a good deal. 



The indication from the foregoing figures is that the per capita con- 

 sumption in the United Stales last season amounted to live and two thirds 

 bushels in addition to the quantity used for seed. This rate is equal to 

 an increase of about a bushel per head over the generally accepted rate 

 of former years. Such a large increase is more than enough to place a 

 big tax upon our faith in the general accuracy of these American statistics. 

 As the Corn Trade News has shown before, it was formerly a difficulty to 

 discover whence the big exportable surpluses of those ^ea^>ns come from; 

 now the boot is on the other leg. A dozen years ago the phenomena 

 were only to be explained by supposing that the per capita consumption 

 hail fallen below four and two-thirds bushels; now that the exportable sur- 

 pluses are not forthcoming as expected, it is claimed that the domestic 

 consumption has increased a bushel per head over the normal. As before 

 stated in these columns, we hesitate to accept the explanation. Our own 

 belief is. that the American crop is now regularly overestimated by the 

 Washington officials. It seems little short of ridiculous to suppose that 

 each man, woman and child is now eating 120 lbs. of bread more per 

 annum than was the case a dozen years ago. 



I merely quote the foregoing to show that the descriptive 

 system alone does not give satisfaction, and must inevitably lead 

 to disappointment. 



" Full normal," i.e., 100, is the term used as a base from 

 which to work. But such terms as " normal," " full normal," 

 " average," " ideal," etc., however cleverly manipulated do not 

 give the actual and correct returns. We are obliged to take off 

 our coats and set to work in order to get what we want, that is, 

 reliable returns which will not mislead us, but which will show 

 us our actual condition and where we stand. 



The Procedure (or How to Collect). 



The procedure in connection with the collection of the 

 required data is a difficulty which we agricultural statisticians 

 have to face. By far the greater majority of farmers keep no 

 records of what they sow or reap, in the first place ; and in the 

 second place, they have no scales to weigh their produce, but 

 simply fill the bags. Again the farmer has his enemies and is 

 robbed of part of his crop by bipeds, quadrupeds and mtllipeds. 

 Neither is he himself very particular. A few handfuls will go 

 to die poultry to keep them off; a few cobs of maize to the pigs 

 to stop their noise, etc. So that to get absolutely correct returns 

 is out of the question. This is also not what we look for. We 

 have already stated that statistics is the science of averages— 

 the science of great numbers. 



In the collection of data, or the material wanted, blank forms 

 must be issued. In the drafting of these forms great care must 

 be exercised. The simpler they are, the less chance is there for 

 mistakes. The questions ought to be put in as simple language as 

 possible, so that anybody can understand them ; and they should 

 not involve the necessity of giving descriptive answers. A simple 

 number or the word " Yes " or " No " must be the answer given. 

 Queries ought not to be ambiguous or equivocal ; there must be 



