THE BLACK DANGER. 



By J. M. P. MuiRHEAD, F.R.S.L., F.S.S., F.R.S.E. 



We have all heard of the Yellow Peril, and even so prominent 

 and versatile a personage as the Kaiser has expressed his fear of 

 it ; but in South Africa, it is the generally believed rapid growth 

 of the non-white population that inspires apprehension, and many 

 people are quite convinced that South Africa in time is bound to be 

 so overrun by the coloured races that the white population will 

 practically be swamped at no far distant date. 



In the latter part of my paper read before this Society in Kim- 

 berley in igo6 I endeavoured to dissipate this bogey, but as usually 

 happens the voice of the investigator (unlike the voice of the turtle) 

 is not heard in the land, and the bogey still looms large in the public 

 mind. Unfortunately, he is not even a harmless sort of scarecrow, 

 because he is to a certain extent responsible for a hatred of the 

 native races, born of fear. 



Now it is very difficult — in fact almost impossible — to get really 

 reliable figures, and no local statistician will be quite happy until 

 there is a really competent General Statisticial Bureau for South 

 Africa, which will deal carefully arid fully with all its complex 

 figures, whereof not the least difficult are those concerning its popu- 

 lation. I commend this suggestion with all respect to the First 

 Union Parliament. One has therefore meanwhile to deal with 

 estimates in many cases, and it is, I believe, largely owing to the 

 inaccuracy of these estimates that the imaginary Black Danger 

 has arisen. I will deal with each Colony separately, and must take 

 the oldest first as it has certain supposed accurate census figures 

 to go on, which have to be partly made use of in arriving at the 

 accuracy of the " Estimates " generally. 



The non-European population of the Cape Colony for the years 

 below mentioned was as follows : — 



1891. (Census figures) 1,150,237. 

 1904. (Census figures) 1,548,560 (for the same area). 

 1907. Government Statistician's estimate, 1,896,820 (in- 

 cludes annexed territories). 

 1907 is in every case the last year available. 



The Cape Coloured population in 13 years (Census figures) 

 apparently increased in the same area at the rate of 30,640 per 

 annum : the increase for the last 3 years is apparently nearly 

 350,000, or almost as much as for the previous 13 5''ears, but the 

 explanation of this apparent discrepancy is the annexation of 

 territories containing a very large native population. For the pur- 

 pose of comparison, it is obvious that the same area only can be 



