THE BLACK DANGER. 89 



considered, continuing the previous 13 years rate of increase of 

 30.640 per annum the population in 1907 would be 1,640.480 leaving 

 about 257.000 as increase by annexation. That is. provided the 

 Census figures are correct, but in my paper of iqo6 T quoted with 

 great misgivings the figures for the years 1900, 1901 and 1902 from 

 the Cape Statistical Register, showing an average excess of births 

 over deaths (i.e.. an increase of population) among the Coloured 

 population of only 2,250 per annum, and yet the Census figures 

 referred to give 30,640 per annum. The difference is ridiculous, 

 and I may at once state that I am now convinced that the Census 

 of 1891 was hopelessly out in its count of the non-white races, 

 probably by no less than quarter of a million. Equally inaccurate 

 must have been the record of births and deaths for 1900, 1901 and 

 1902 as the excess is apparently only about 25% of the real figures. 

 In 1907 the Coloured births were 41,110 and the deaths 29,219, 

 the increase being 11,891, which I believe to be the correct figure, 

 more especially as it coincides with the figures for the 34 principal 

 towns in 1904 which I quoted in my i^revious ])aper, viz. : an 

 increase of about ()'8 per thousand. 



In Natal the increase is about 13 per thousand, or almost double 

 that of the Caj^c. I will therefore use the higher figure (i.e.; the 

 Natal) so as to be quite fair in estimating the O.R.C. and Transvaal 

 increases. 



Taking the Cape Census figures for 1904 as accurate, and the 

 rate of increase, say, 7 per thousand, the population for 1899 would 

 be 1,292,410, and for 1907, 1,581,068, or to allow for the increased 

 annual ratio, say, 1,600,000, leaving nearly 300,000 as increase by 

 annexation, the increase for the same area for the eight years thus 

 being 105,590. 



In 1899 Whittaker's Almanac estimated the Coloured i)opulation 

 of the Orange Free State at 125,000, in 1907 the figures for that 

 Colony were 241,626 — an increase in 8 years of 116,626 ; a perfectly 

 absurd figure. It takes a prolific country about 40 years to double 

 its population, and while the fertility of the Orange River Colony 

 is well known, to double its native population in 8 years is just a 

 bit too rapid for human imagination : the estimate rs undoubtedly 

 quite inaccurate : applying the same proportion of increase as in 

 Natal the estimate for 1899 should be roughly 215,000, giving the 

 increase for the 8 years as 26,626. 



In 1899 Whittaker's Almanac estimated the Coloured iio]>ulation 

 of the Transvaal as 750,000. The figures for 1907 were 972.674. 

 In this case 50.000 has to be added to the 1908 figures to get the 

 same area, as between 1899 and 1907 Natal absorbed Transvaal 

 territory containing (History of the War — last volume) 50,000 

 natives, this means the total increase on the estimate in 8 years of 

 272,674. Again applying the Natal rate of increase, the estimate 

 fof 1899 should be 940,000, or an increase in 8 years of 112.674. 



In Natal (at last, and, fortunately, we can deal with actual 

 figures) the native population in 1900 \\as 865,019, in 1907 1.011,645. 

 From this latter figure must be deducted 50,000, the number of 

 natives taken from the Transvaal, making a net increase in 7 years 

 of 96,626, or at the same rate 110.436 for the 8 years under review. 



