qO THE BLACK DANGER. 



The tota^ increase of Coloured j^oi^ulation for the 8 years — 1899- 

 1907— would therefore appear to be : — 



Cape Colony 105,590. Based on actual increas" in 1907. 



Transvaal 112.674. Based on i3°/oo P^^' ^-^'^- increase. 



Natal 110,436. Practically actual figures. 



O.R.C. 26.626. Based on is"/^,- annual increase. 



355-326 



Turning to the white population on the Census figures, it was 

 in 1891, 376,987 in the Cape Colony, in 1904 it was 569,973. an 

 increase of 192.986, or 14.845 per annum ; in 1899 on this basis it 

 would be 495.748. The Government Statistician estimates the 

 population in 1907 at 610,680, a figure which I am quite prepared 

 to accept, though but for emigration, to which I will refer later, it 

 would have been considerably larger. The excess of white births 

 over deaths in 1907 was 13,123, or 1,722 less than the average in- 

 crease of the white population, including immigration, for the 13 

 years ended December 31st, 1904. The European death rate was 

 10-28 per thousand, which seems only to be beaten by New Zealand 

 with 9-87. but the excess, i.e.. of births over deaths, is 21-50, as com- 

 pared to the Cape Coloured excess of 6*8 and the Natal native 

 excess of 13. Compared with European countries this is very high, 

 Germany, the highest in Europe, being i4-4i and Great Britain 

 11-95, which speaks well for the salubriety of the S. African climate. 

 The increase of white population in the Cape Colony for the 8 years 

 under review was 114,932 : probably till 1904 it gained largely 

 from immigration, at any rate from. 1899 to 1903 it must have thus 

 benefitted very considerably. In 1902, 50,206 people left England 

 for South Africa, of whom the Cape would get its share ; in 1907 

 only 16,820 so left. In 1907, however, 29,767 people arrived at 

 Cape Ports, 39,550 left ; a loss of white population in one year of 

 9,783 ; but even in 1907 I fancy the Transvaal and O.R.C. were still 

 benefiting from immigration. Natal in that particular year was 

 probably stationary, but during that year the Cape suffered enor- 

 mously and has suffered ever since, indeed since 1905 I estimate 

 that the Cape has lost 30,000 white people by emigration. 



In Natal the actual increase of white population from 1900 to 

 1907 was 32,158. At the same ratio for the 8 years it would be 

 36,752. Natal must therefore have benefited from immigration 

 during the 8 years by about 20,000 people. 



The O.R.C. and Transvaal are very difficult to gauge, Whittaker's 

 Almanac gives the white population in 1899 as 78,000 and 250,000 

 respectively, both quite wrong, I should fancy, the population in 

 1907 was 143,419 and 297.277, or an increase of 65,419 in the 

 Orange River Colony, and only 47,277 in the Transvaal, which is 

 ridiculous. In the absence of reliable data, however, I am not going 

 to guess at what it really was. We have fairly definite figures for 

 the Colonies most affected by the " Black Danger," viz. : Natal 

 and the Cape Colony, and they show : — 



