74 



THE INDIA RUBBER WORLD 



[November 1, 1911. 



Synthetic Possibilities. 



(By a Practical Man.) 



NOW that synthetic rubber is no longer the iridescent dream 

 of the enthusiast, what will be its effect upon the manu- 

 facture of rubber goods when it can be supplied in quan- 

 ity in the world's markets, and compete with wild, cuUivated and 

 reclaimed rubber for prestige? 



A careful analysis of the record made by manufactured rub- 

 ber goods during the past twenty-five years, will establish as a 

 fact that this, the latest "discovery" in the line of rubber re- 

 search, is unlikely to have any appreciable effect in depreciating 

 the value of shares in rubber plantations, or in lowering the cost 

 of the vast list of articles manufactured from rubber. One 

 reason for this is not far to seek. 



Rubber cultivation is like other enterprises of the sort, and 

 experience from one season to another makes clear the fact 

 that scientific methods will result in lowering of costs, with re- 

 sult that plantation rubber will probably be produced at con- 

 siderably under 20 cents per pound. When it is understood that 

 the better grades of reclaimed rubber cannot now be manufac- 

 tured at this cost, the synthetic dream will hardly develop the 

 proportions of a nightmare. 



It should also be borne in mind that synthetic rubber, while 

 a scientific fact, is not as yet a commercial proposition. Until 

 it takes its place in the arena of practical utilities it can be re- 

 garded as an interesting development of man's research, but 

 nothing over which either investor or manufacturer need lose an 

 hodr of sleep. 



Accepting its evolution or discovery as a fact, it has yet to be 

 demonstrated that it can be produced outside the laboratory of 

 the chemist in commercial quantities, and at a cost to compete 

 with wild rubbers, that for example can be gathered in South 

 America and delivered in London at a net cash per pound of 

 40 cents or less. 



Examination of prices obtained for fine Para rubber for ten 

 years, 1890-1900, shows the average price to have been about 

 83 cents per pound, with a low price of 66 cents ; for the ten 

 years, 1900-1910, prices averaged $1.31, made possible by the 

 extraordinary rise in 1910 to $2.86. The low price for this period 

 was 70 cents. In fact, the cost of fine Para in the New York 

 market for the years 1888, 1889, 1892, 1893, 1894, and 1902 was 

 70 cents per pound and under, and the claim has yet to be ad- 

 vanced that rubber was being marketed at a loss. Incidentally 

 a study of this sort reveals the profitable nature of investments 

 in rubber shares, and one no longer wonders at 100 per cent, 

 annual dividends. 



When, further, we remember that there was imported into the 

 United States alone for the first six month of this year, not less 

 than 91,000,000 pounds of crude rubbers, it can be readily inferred 

 that additions of synthetic or any other sort of rubber to affect 

 prevailing values of crude would have to be upon an immense 

 scale. 



To produce such additional supply even approximately, would 

 involve the expenditure of vast sums for the equipment of fac- 

 tories, and capital for an enterprise of such proportions would 

 not be subscribed by far sighted financiers until they had satis- 

 fied themselves of the coincident advantages likely to offset the 

 rapid enhancement in cost of crude material that would have to 

 be used in the manufacture of synthetic rubber, and which would 

 increase its cost of production far beyond the present academic 

 estimates. 



The extreme high prices obtainable for crude rubbers during 

 the past two years are not chargeable to the law of supply and 

 demand, but to artificial conditions. If the best wild rubber were 



to remain at $2.75 to $3.00 per pound for the next decade, then 

 the matter of profits in the manufacture of synthetic would be 

 greatly simplified. But the same grade that sold for $2.86 per 

 pound in April, 1910, has since then been purchased under $1.00 

 per pound. Manipulators may come and go, prices for crude 

 rubber may rise and fall, but the great industry of the manu- 

 facture of rubber goods goes ever onward with ever increasing 

 momentum. 



The experience of the past two years has been invaluable to 

 the manufacturer. He has developed from experimental, rule- 

 of-thumb compounding, into scientific compounding. He has 

 discovered undreamed of values in rubbers that came to him 

 from places far removed from the favored and famous forests 

 of South America. He has not lost his respect for Para, but 

 has developed an abiding interest in other sorts. Consequently 

 exploiters of synthetic rubber may count on well-intrenched 

 competition as soon as their product appears on the market. 



Synthetic rubber as an admitted scientific fact, has yet to es- 

 tablish its position as a competitor with wild and cultivated rub- 

 bers in the matter of quality. 



What is its greatest elongation without breaking? 



What is its recovery from standard stretch tests? 



What are its insulation qualities? 



All these and many more questions have yet to be answered, 

 and until they are and synthetic rubber can qualify point by 

 point with fine Para, there is no danger of rubber becoming a 

 "drug" on the market. 



If therefore, it should transpire that synthetic rubber (how- 

 ever valuable a position it may attain as an adjunct to the rub- 

 ber manufacturing industry) fails to mark up to established 

 standards for "high grade," it stands face to face with an 

 equally perplexing competitor in the form of low grade rubbers 

 from Mexico, South America and Africa; a great host full of 

 bark and sand it is true, but of proven value for many purposes, 

 with low shrinkages, and net costs that are attractive, and likely 

 to prove troublesome to the exploiters of any sort of scientific 

 rubber. 



Finally, that branch of the rubber manufacturing industry 

 that redeems or reclaims rubber that has once been used, must 

 be considered in its relation to the possible commercial pos- 

 sibilities of synthetic rubber. 



Reclaimed rubber is an item of significant importance in the 

 cost of a very wide range of articles made from rubber. When 

 it is considered that the best grade of "reclaimed" contains 90 

 per cent of rubber, and sells at prices ranging from SO cents 

 to 75 cents a pound, it is a factor that must be reckoned with, 

 especially in view of the possibility that the manufacture of 

 synthetic may bring about so great a lowering in the cost of 

 manufactured goods that reclaimers will profit proportionately 

 in the low values of scrap rubber. 



It is safe to conclude, however, that the projectors of the new 

 synthetic rubber will not venture to manufacture in commercial 

 quantities without first satisfying themselves that their enterprise 

 will be profitable in proportion to its importance, the risk in- 

 volved and its permanence. In the meantime we will continue to 

 make the same good goods at the same old stands in constantly 

 increasing quantities, pocket the profits and trust to luck. 



Send for Index (free) to Mr. Pearson's "Crude Rubber and 

 Compounding Ingredients." 



.\ BOOK for everybody interested in' tires — "Rubber Tires and 

 .Ml About Them"— this ofiice. 



