162 



THE INDIA RUBBER WORLD. 



[January 1, 1912. 



ESTIMATED RESULTS AT FIFTH AND TWELFTH YEARS. 



In pro-forma calculations given of prospective annual results 

 from the fifth to the twelfth year, the low^est of the above esti- 

 mates of quantity is used as a basis of calculation. 



The scope and general features of the above-named calculations 

 are illustrated by the following estimates, applicable to an estate 

 of 1,000 acres: 



Fifth year — 250 acres at SO lbs. per annum = 12,500 



lbs. at $0.72 per lb 



Less cost of production at $0.48 per lb 



(Estimated result) 



Twelfth year — 1,000 acres at 400 lbs. per annum =^ 



400,000 lbs. at $0.72 per lb 



Less cost of production at $0.36 per lb 



$9,000 

 6,000 



$3,000 



$288,000 

 144,000 



(Estimated result) $144,000 



COST OF PRODUCTION PER POUND. 



As to this crucial point, it is stated that the average cost per 

 pound, for 33 estates taken indiscriminately, equalled Is. 2^d. or 

 $0.29. This average, it is noted, is on a basis including young 

 trees. That in the estimates of results just referred to, the cost 

 of production is figured at 36 cents, is in harmony with the con- 

 servative nature of Mr. Figart's other calculations. 



COMPARATIVE QUALITY OF PRODUCT. 



On this subject Mr. Figart makes the following recommenda- 

 tion : 



"Plantation rubber, while superior to fine hard Para in resin- 

 ous and mineral tests, has generally proved inferior in strength, 

 and more care must be taken in working it up, to prevent a soft 

 product resulting. Recent tests, however, have been more satis- 

 factory; and with improved methods in cultivating, collecting, 

 coagulating and preparing (plantation) rubber, it is confidently 

 expected that the future product will approximate fine hard 

 Para in every important test." 



PROBABLE OUTPUT. 



Mr. Figart's view, that nothing definite can be said about the 

 probable output of rubber, is a statement of importance. At the 

 same time, he quotes the subjoined estimates of two prominent 

 rubber men, which are very close to each other, wliich he charac- 

 terizes being "as good estimates as can be obtained" : 



Production, 1910. 



Malaya alone 14.368.863 lbs. (or about) 6450 tons 



Ceylon alone 3,298,652 " " " 1450 " 



Total Far East 17,667,515 " 



7900 



Estimate No. 1 (Malaya alone). 



Tons. 



1910 6,450 



1911 11,000 



1912 18.000 



1913 24,000 



1914 33,000 



1915 45,000 



1916 65,000 



Estimate No. 2 (for total Far East). 



1910 7.900 



1911 16.000-17,000 



1912 25,000-30,000 



1913 40.000-45,000 



1914 55.000-60,000 



1915 70,000 



When figures in resiect to Cevlon the Netherlands Indies, 



Burma, etc., are added to those from Malaya in estimate No. 1, 

 the result will be very close to that shown by the second estimate. 



M.ARKET VALUE AND DI\'IDENDS. 



In connection with these points Mr. Figart remarks that the 

 following conditions may be assumed : — 



Cost of Production, 36 cents per pound; (some estates 

 now turning out rubber for less than 24 cents.) 



Selling Price, 2 shillings, or 48 cents. 



Profit, 12 cents per pound. 

 On the basis of the two estimates previously referred to of 

 400 and 577 pounds per acre for ten-year-old trees, it is calculated 

 that the profit per acre would be respectively $48 and $69. Taking 

 even the lower figure, it is shown that in the cases of seven 

 estates chosen indiscriminately, the profit would represent for 

 original investors from 17.4 per cent, to 61.5 per cent., while on 

 the present high market values, the shares would pay from 2.6 

 per cent, to 6 per cent. These results, it is urged, show the sound 

 basis of the industry, even with appreciated share values. 



LABOR. 



A constant increase is recorded in the arrivals of Chinese 

 immigrants at both Singapore and Penang; the number landed 

 at the former port in 1910 having been 216,321, as against 151,752 

 for 1909. The number arriving at Penang was 59,414; being 37 

 • per cent, in excess of that recorded for the previous year. It 

 being calculated that by 1920 there may perhaps be a million 

 acres of rubber trees in Malaya, as compared with about one- 

 third that area at present under cultivation, this possible three- 

 fold increase would necessitate a labor force of 600,000 to 700,000 

 coclies, against the 200,000 at which the present number has been 

 estimated. The prospective increased cost of the coolie labor 

 required to meet the needs of the estates is a factor to which 

 Mr. Figart calls attention, as possibly enhancing the cost of 

 Malayan rubber production. 



A distinction as to accessory crops is drawn between catch- 

 crops and cover crops. The former description is grown for the 

 purpose of getting revenue, during the first four or five years, up 

 to the time when the rubber is at the producing stage, but agri- 

 culturally they are not to be recommended. In the Federated 

 Malay States, less than 6 per cent, of the rubber acreage was 

 planted in 1910 with catch crops (principally coffee), as against 

 10 per cent, in 1909, while in the Straits Settlements tlie per- 

 centage was only 28 per cent., as compared with 40 per cent, for 

 the previous year. 



Cover-crops are planted between rubber, at present chiefly with 

 the object of reducing the expenditure on weeding. Mr. Figart 

 remarks that no cover-crop can be unconditionally recommended 

 in Malayan plantations ; considering the best procedure at present 

 to be absolute clean weeding. He adds that if a leguminous and 

 easily controlled cover crop were introduced, it might be prefer- 

 able even to clean weeding, particularly if it paid the cost of its 

 own production. 



RUBBER seed OIL AND POONAC. 



Although experiments in crushing rubber seeds for the oil and 

 residual poonac have so far been without satisfactory results, 

 recommendations have been sent to planters to instal machinery 

 suitable for the purposes named, so as to continue trials in the 

 direction indicated. 



DETAILS OF PLANTATION EXPENDITURE. 



In a detailed appendix, the work of Mr. C. C. Malet, formerly 

 connected with the Agriculture Department of the Belgian Congo, 

 and at present a licensed valuator in the Straits Settlements, full 

 pro-forma particulars are shown of the various elements of cost 

 of rubber production on a thousand acre estate, on the basis cf 



