April 1, 1912, 



THE ; INDIA RUBBER WORLD 



323 



THE FUTURE OF RUBBER PRICES. 



A LONDON correspondent of the "Gummi-Zeitung'' in dealing 

 recently with the above subject, remarks that the English 

 rubber market, since the beginning of 1912, has displayed unusual 

 steadiness, coupled with a moderate amount of business. He 

 adds that plantation sorts (the production of which for the cur- 

 rent year is estimated at 22,000 tons) are at a high-water mark, 

 which has been fluctuating within narrow limits above 5 shillings 

 ($1.2163), or about 8 pence (16.21 cents) higher than the best 

 wild rubber, a visible proof being thus afforded of the preference 

 of consumers for plantation rubber. The quantity of this class 

 (by no means small) ottered at the last London auctions all 

 met with buyers at full prices. 



Such, it is remarked, is the tenor of broker's reports, and of 

 the plantation companies to their shareholders. 



"But," the writer asks, "what have we to expect for the 

 immediate future? A definite fall in prices, or a decided 

 advance? A new rise or a drop? As high as S.j. 4d. has 

 been paid on several occasions for light plantation crepe. 

 And in spite of all this, the selling prices of automobile and 

 bicycle tires have been considerably reduced by the best 

 makers. How can these facts be reconciled?" 



"If we inquire, in Mincing Lane, the reason of the steady 

 high level of prices, we are told: 'It's the persistent inquiries 

 from the consumers.' So it is consumption that is itself 

 keeping up the market ? And yet it is known that at present 

 only the most urgent requirements are being covered. Prices 

 are too high — much too high, and consumers would prefer 

 to buy nothing, were they not obliged to do so." 



"The supply in all kinds of rubber is important, and has 

 increased in far greater proportion than the growth of the 

 rubber goods industry. Thus it is only to a very limited ex- 

 tent that consumption has to bear the blame of the present 

 high price of the raw material." 



With regard to the present attitude of speculators, the fol- 

 lowing interesting suggestion is put forward : 



"From the steadiness of the market, we might be tempted 

 to believe that speculation, which previously was so suc- 

 cessful in its manipulations, was asleep or had withdrawn. 

 Such is, however, a vain hope. The probability is rather that 

 those interested in a rise or a fall are acting on about the 

 same principle and are now balancing each other, but that 

 both factors, on account of the risk and in the present diffi- 

 cult monetary situation, are deterred from risking a couf' 

 in one or the other direction. The time is, however, ap- 

 proaching when the one factor must give way to the other, 

 and there is every prospect that in this measuring of forces, 

 those wanting a rise will be vanquished. The rubber manu- 

 facturing industry, which is capable of exercising a greater 

 influence upon the crude rubber market than it has hitherto 

 done, should not be satisfied until the price for Para is 

 brought below 4 shillings a pound. For the speculative ele- 

 ment is not idle." 



Looking at the matter from another point of view, it is asked, 

 if in previous years, the crude rubber trade was doing very well 

 when wild rubber of South American and African origin was 

 selling far below present prices, why could it not do the same 

 today. It is added : 



"The complaints as to the alleged increasing difficulty of 

 obtaining rubber from distant forests cannot be substantiated. 

 In the Amazon territory and the Congo, improved road and 

 rail construction, removal of duties and other administrative 

 measures, have afforded support to the rubber growing in- 

 dustry, in view of the growing competition from plantation 

 rubber. On the other hand, it is admitted that Eastern plan- 

 tations would pay handsomely at a price of 2s. to 2s. 6d. for 

 their product. According to their own declaration, a pound 



of pure rubber only costs the soimd plantation companies 

 about 1.S-. 6rf. The profits of plantation cultivation on this 

 scale, upon the above yearly quantity of 22,000 tons, runs 

 into the hundred millions of marks." 



Finally, the attention of the rubber industry is called to the 

 fact that the stock of rubber at points of export and import 

 (apart from the quantity afloat), is, in the writer's views, enor- 

 mous. Reference is made to receipts at Para from the interior, 

 of 4,000 tons up to February 24. There were, at time of writ- 

 ing, over 1,000 tons of plantation rubber in London for the ap- 

 proaching auctions, while 500 tons of Congo and other rubber 

 were listed for the next Antwerp sales. Behind these quantities 

 is the Brazillian stock which has not yet come upon the market. 

 The writer brings up the point that the "bullish" reports of 

 rubber brokers and plantation companies make it appear as if 

 the manufacturing industry could use all these quantities through 

 its unlimited capacity of absorption. In fact, as it is remarked, 

 the industry is made to look as extensible as the raw material 

 it handles; the chief object of the companies being to keep up 

 the profit nf their operations, while manufacturers may be satis- 

 lied with their industrial gains for working the rubber. 



It is urged in conclusion, that this view is based on a mistake ; 

 perhaps an intentional one. The writer adds : 



"The purchasing power of the public, and thus of the 

 rubber manufacturing industry is limited. The times are 

 not bright. Before the automobile becomes generally used 

 by householders, before the bicycle and rubber shoes are 

 adopted by poor people, before there is a noiseless London 

 through rubber paving — prices of raw material must have 

 been considerably reduced." 



"Therefore the rubber trade, and particularly the rubber 

 goods manufacturing industry, can themselves help, by skil- 

 ful buying and cautious operations, to bring down the prices 

 of this product, so indispensable to the industry of the present 

 day. All prospects would seem, from above explanations, to 

 favor this course." 



TECHNICAL USES OF "MANIHOT" AND 

 "KICKXIA." 



AMONG questions now engaging the attention of rubber 

 scientists is the connection between the preparation and 

 application of different varieties. 



In an interesting booklet. Dr. Frank has reproduced his pa- 

 per, read at the recent London Rubber Exhibition, in which 

 the whole subject of the cultivation and technical uses of plan- 

 tation rubber is dealt with in such a manner as to bring the 

 salient points involved clearly before the reader. While pro- 

 fessedly referring specially to Kickxia (Funtumja) and Manihoi, 

 the general features outlined serve as landmarks for the con- 

 sideration cf the rubber question, and lead up to the subject of 

 standardization of rubber treated, by Dr. Frank's colleague. Dr. 

 Eduard ^Nlarckwald, in his booklet referred to in the March issue 

 of The Indi-\ Rubber World (p. 269). 



Dr. Frank pertinently remarks, in continuation of his previous 

 utterances, that it is desirable to bring about uniformity in the 

 methods of preparing rubber on the plantations, in order to 

 pave the way for a standardization of plantation rubbers, which 

 would greatly increase their usefulness. The suitability of plan- 

 tation rubber, it is remarked, is dependent firstly, on climatic 

 and soil conditions, and secondly, on the manner in which it is 

 prepared. The species of tree, though influencing the value of 

 the rubber, is only of secondary importance. 



Dealing with this last branch of the subject. Dr. Frank states 

 that Hevea rubber, if carefully prepared will always be regarded 

 as the most suitable general product, while Kickxia rubber has 

 not been considered to possess the same technical value. The 



