548 



THE INDIA RUBBER WORLD 



[August 1, 1912. 



THE REAL RUBBER OUTLOOK. 



According to a rubber manastr, who passed through Hong 

 Kong recently, and whose views are quoted by the "South China 

 Morning Post," Malay homesteads are now surrounded with 

 rubber trees instead of cocoanuts as formerly. The latter are 

 being rapidly exterminated on most of the estates and many 

 other profit-yielding crops, such as sugar cane, are vanishing. 



He adds: "It is impossible in the circumstances that the price 

 (if rubber can be maintained. It is true, certainly, that the de- 

 mand for rubber is increasing, but it is also true that the pro- 

 duction is multiplying at an enonnous rate, and the cost of 

 labor rapidly increasing. The next two years, during w.hich inost 

 of the estates which came into being during the boom would 

 come into full bearing, would be vital ones for rubber share- 

 holders. It would eventually resolve itself into a case of the 

 survival of the fittest, and consequently the older companies 

 with substantial reserves laid by during the boom period, would 

 probably buy out the weaklings at prices which shareholders 

 would be compelled to accept." 



THE WORLD'S RUBBER ACREAGE. 



FOR sime little time past the world's area in plantation rubber 

 has been known to l)e approaching the million-acre mark, that 

 figure having been named by The Indi.\ Rubber World of May 

 last (page 393) as having been then probably exceeded. The 

 estimate of Vice-Consul General Figart of Singapore had placed 

 the acreage for 1910 at about 800,000 acres. The increase of 

 some 200,000 acres, or 25 per cent, of the planted area, accord- 

 ing to statistics to the end of 1911, shows that the large yields 

 have encouraged fresh planting. A comparison of the two es- 

 timates confirms the fact that planting is still on the increase 

 upon the Malayan Peninsula, with the prospect of all the more 

 rubber in five years from now : 



ESTIM.\TES OF WORLD'S ACRE.\GE PLANTED IN RUBBER. 



1910. 1911. 



Malayan Peninsula acres 362.853 500.000 



Ceylon 241.885 200.000 



Java and Sumatra 150,000 2a).000 



India Burma 43,525 30,000 



-Borneo 25,000 



Cochin China 11,000 15,000 



Other countries (say) 30.000 



Totals 809,263 1,000,000 



The later estimate having been compiled by the Association de"! 

 Planteurs de Caoutchouc may be considered as reliable and as 

 fully confirming the previous anticipations on the subject of the 

 "million acres." 



Applying these rates to the 500,000 acres planted up to 1911, 

 according to the acreage at various ages of trees, the follow- 

 ing result is shown : 



Position at End of 1911. 



MALAYAN PRODUCTION IN 1916. 



ESTIMATES of acreage planted in rubber are of interest, but 

 tlieir practical significance depends upon the number and 

 age of the trees they contain, as well as upon their prospec- 

 tive yield. 



In order to define the probable result, it is necessary to es- 

 tablish a normal basis of yield per acre, varying with the age of 

 the trees. Such an estimate has been made by Dutch Consul- 

 General Spakler, of Singapore, as follows : 



Yield per 

 acre in pounds. 



Trees 4 years old 60 



" 5 " " 125 



•' 6 " " 200 



" 7 " " 250 



" 8 " " 300 



" 9 " " 325 



" 10 " " 350 



Total acreage 1911 ... .500,000 acres. 



The fact that the actual exports from the Malayan Peninsula 

 only amounted in 1911 to 23,400,000 pounds, is attributed to the 

 drought of the spring months, and to the fact that to a great ex- 

 tent the plantations of 1906 and 1907 were neglected in 1908 and 

 1909, their future yield being thus affected. 



Estimates for tlie years 1912 to 1916 are: 



Planted Tapped Estimated yield 



(.\cres). (.A.cres). (Pounds). 



1911 500,000 215,000 30,162,000 



1912 500,000 263.000 45,587,000 



1913 500,000 324,000 64,192,000 



1914 500,000 437,000 86,712,000 



1915 500,000 500,000 111.537,000 



1916 500,000 500,000 133.083,tXX) 



These figures, it will he understood, take no account of the 

 yield from plantings of 1912 and later years. That from the 

 acreage actually planted, the market will in 1916 have to absorb 

 133 million pounds, as compared with 23 million pounds in 1911, 

 is a fact to be kept in view when estimating future prospects. 



The estimate of Mr. Figart, United States vice-consul general 

 at Singapore, of the 1916 yield, quoted by the India Rubber 

 World in January, 1912 (page 162), was 65,000 tons (130,000,000 

 pounds), which practically agrees with the above independent 

 estimate of 133.083.000 by tlie Dutch consul general at the 

 same port. 



RETIREMENT OF A PIONEER MALAYAN PLANTER. 



After 28 years in the East. Mr. J. B. Douglas lately returned 

 to England. Mr. Douglas has been for five years with the Anglo- 

 Malay Rubber Co., and altogether has had a pretty wide experi- 

 ence of rubber in his province, ISFegri Sembilan. When asked be- 

 fore leaving as to his general opinion of the best land for rubber- 

 growing in Malaya, he stated that he thinks the hilly country will 

 always prove the more satisfactory where it has been planted up, 

 the low-lying land being subject to floods and swamps and other 

 experiences so injurious to ruliber. 



