October i, 1903.] 



THE INDIA RUBBER WORLD 



THE RUBBER SUPPLY AND DEMAND. 



ANY material decline in crude rubber prices must result 

 from a wider margin than now exists between supply 

 and demand. In other words, there must be (1) a 

 check to the rubber industry, or (2) an increased pro- 

 duction of the raw material. The first condition, of course, no 

 one wishes to see, besides which no reason is apparent for pre- 

 dicting its occurrence in the near future. Then what is the 

 outlook for more rubber? 



An encouraging fact is that the production of Para rubber 

 has been steadily progressive from the beginning. The total 

 exports from the Amazon river amounted in 1864 to only 

 7,840,000 pounds, and in the 38 years since only in eight cases 

 has it happened that the output in any one year failed to show 

 an increase over the preceding crop. In 1902 the figure was 

 62,809,500 pounds, and the trade in general looks for as much 

 rubber this year. To take the last ten crop seasons (July to 

 June) the rate of increase or decrease in the yearly arrivals at 

 Para has been as follows : 



1893-94 +3 9 '•' 



1894 95 —13 * 



1895-96 +7-8 % 



1896 97 +6.4 % 



1897-98 — 0.03 Ji 



1898 99 +14. 



1899 00 + 5-3 



190001 +3-5 



1901-02 +85 



1902-03 — 0.35 



No study of statistics or conditions has yet revealed any law 

 of increase or decline in production in this field, or a basis for 

 prediction in any year. Two years ago an important Liverpool 

 firm staked their reputation on a prediction that the next Para 

 crop would show a shortage of 20 per cent., and that the price 

 would go to \s. 6d. The crop actually showed a gain of 8^ per 

 cent., and at the end of the season Para rubber was selling at 

 about 3.T. The general attitude of merchants and traders on 

 the Amazon is that of never expecting short crops, the reasons 

 for which are well set forth on another page of this Journal by 

 a Para merchant of long experience. 



Some criticism has been elicited by the article by Mr. Paul 

 Cibot, reprinted in the last India Rubber World from a 

 French source, relative to the extinction of wild Hevea rubber, 

 which he regards as an ultimate, though not imminent, cer- 

 tainty. Mr. Cibot has been a careful observer, for the last 

 seven years, of rubber conditions on the rio B6ni, and his 

 views are entitled to respect, though the experience of the 

 state of Para would suggest that in Bolivia, as in the lower 

 Amazon region, the collection of rubber will continue even 

 after the period of the richest yield of the trees is past. Long 

 as the rubber fields of Grao Pard have been worked, they now 

 yield more rubber than ever before. The annual increase was 

 rapid until, in 1893, the crop reached 8000 and some hundred 

 tons, at which figure it remained for six years, the upriver out- 

 put, from virgin fields, meanwhile increasing 25 per cent. Lat- 

 terly the exports from Para state have increased to over 10,000 

 tons, due probably to some extension of the area worked, as 

 well as more judicious treatment of the trees. The Para out- 

 put is now being increased some by the discovery in that 

 state of Caucho, the receipts of which last season were 310 

 tons, against 85 tons the year before, and almost nothing pre- 

 viously. 



A correspondent at Para writes, bearing upon the continu- 

 ous yield of old rubber estates : " Only a comparatively small 

 percentage of the rubber trees on any estate are worked. There 

 are always plenty of fresh trees near the estradas, and if the 

 manager of the sen'ngal'is a man of enterprise (which is by no 



means likely to be the case) he will search out and tap new 

 trees as fast as the old ones die out, and this will keep up his 

 quantity for an unlimited time. The life of a rubber tree which 

 is tapped every season will not be more than 40 years, and 

 when the work is not carefully or judiciously done, the tree 

 will die out in less than half that time. For this reason it is 

 plain to be seen that new rubber fields must be opened from 

 time to time." 



The Amazon exports include of course, the grades of rub- 

 ber known as Caucho, obtained from other trees than the Hevea 

 species. From all accounts it appears that the collection of 

 Caucho involves the destruction of the tree, so that new fields 

 must constantly be sought by the caucheros, for which reason a 

 falling off in the supply has long been looked for. The India 

 Rubber World (October 1, 1901) has published an exhaustive 

 study of the rubber production of Colombia, which, after reach- 

 ing a very large figure, has declined to almost nothing. That 

 rubber is of the class marketed as Caucho. The caucheros 

 moved from Colombia to Ecuador and thence to Peru, every- 

 where exhausting the sources of supply. The trade in this rub- 

 ber in Iquitos for awhile was very large, but it has now declined 

 until business generally at that port is in a depressed condition. 

 And yet Caucho continues to come to market, because of new 

 areas being opened to exploitation. The decline so long ex- 

 pected has not yet begun, unless it is to be seen in the fact that 

 the export through Pari last year was smaller than in the pre- 

 ceding year; the totals for several years having been : 



Years. United Stales. Europe. Total. 



1888 kilos 643,992 423,200 1,067,192 



1892 .... 930,225 735,067 1,665,292 



1897 858.839 1,214.173 2,073,012 



1901 1.325,290 2.638,599 3,963,889 



1902 I>I33.I55 2,057,222 3,190,377 



Certainly the limit of this large production must be reached 

 in time, for the whole of the Caucho producing district, just as 

 has occurred already in Colombia, Ecuador, and an important 

 portion of Peru, after which the reliance for uncultivated rubber 

 in America must be the Hevea trees of the Amazon region — 

 the only rubber species that, in the wild state, is not destroyed 

 in the extraction of its product. 



The falling off of the rubber output of every important field 

 thus far worked in Africa has been referred to often in The 

 India Rubber World, and though new fields are opened 

 from time to time, the total output is smaller now than it was 

 a few years ago. The statistical summaries supplied by Hecht, 

 Levis & Kahn (Liverpool) indicate that the yearly receipts of 

 rubber at the leading markets of the world have been distribut- 

 ed as follows : 



Season. Pari sorts. Other sorts. Total. 



1898-99 tons 23,329 26,818 50,147 



1899-OO 24,422 26,655 51,077 



1900-OI 25,255 25,224 50,479 



1901-02 27,171 22,888 50,059 



1902-03 27,446 25,713 53,159 



It would thus seem that the yearly receipts of Para sorts 

 have increased at a steady, though not regular rate, the figure 

 being larger by 17.6 per cent, last year than for 1898-99. On 

 the other hand, the highest figure for all other sorts combined 

 was reached five years ago, since which time the yearly aver- 

 age of such receipts has been about 1700 tons less than for the 

 season 1898-99. 



There was a time when the world's consumption of rubber 



