6 



THE INDIA RUBBER WORLD- 



[October i, 1903. 



was supplied almost wholly from Para. Then the Indian and 

 African sources were developed, until their production ex- 

 ceeded that of the Amazon regions. During five years past, 

 however, according to the figures in the preceding table, the 

 percentage of other than Pard grades in the combined receipts 

 in the markets, has been as follows : 



1898-99. 1899-00. 1900-01. 1901-02. 1902-03. 



53.4 £ 52.1 £ 50 # 45-7 £ 48.3 £ 



To sum up: Para grades again form the larger half of the 

 world's supply. The rate of increase in the Para output seems 



likely to be less rapid in future, especially as that output com- 

 prises Caucho — a grade destined to practical extinction. 

 Madagascar and Assam sorts are practically gone, as are sev- 

 eral West African sorts, and even the Congo output grows less 

 rather than larger. It is possible that some of the unworked 

 districts may be opened more speed ily than now seems likely, but 

 it now appears entirely safe to regard the limit of the world's 

 rubber production, as a whole, as more nearly reached than 

 at any time in the past. This condition does not inspire any 

 hope of lower prices, to say the least. 



RUBBER PROSPECTS IN THE AMAZON COUNTRY. 



BEING asked to favor The India Rubber World with 

 his views on the future of the supply of Para rubber, 

 Mr. Rudolph A. Zietz, of Para, who is at present in 

 New York, expressed himself as follows : 



" I do not believe, as far as human judgment can foresee, 

 that the output of rubber of all species, from the territory 

 drained by the Amazon river and its tributaries, will ever be 

 permanently ' short.' On the contrary, I believe more in esti- 

 mating an average yearly increase, though not at the same 

 ratio as in the last 25 years, during which it has risen from about 

 7000 to 30,000 tons. It is likely that in some years the crop may 

 show a small shortage, but it will be counterbalanced by a 

 larger crop in the following years. This gradual and steady — 

 but from now on slower — increase will be the natural conse- 

 quence of the constant opening up of new regions, the exten- 

 sion of facilities for transportation, and improving sanitary 

 conditions along the Amazon. The quicker and better means 

 of communication are enabling people to protect themselves 

 more against the climatic conditions, and to hurry away in case 

 of sickness. 



"In a good many of the rubber districts permanent settle- 

 ments of rubber collectors have developed, and they are be- 

 coming acclimated and learning to brave the peculiar hard- 

 ships of life there. The work of collecting rubber can be done 

 with comparatively fewer people to-day than formerly. I do 

 not believe that the supply of new rubber hunters by immigra- 

 tion will be larger than heretofore. It is claimed that the ma- 

 terial available from the north Brazilian states, willing or able 

 to endure the privations of life in rubber gathering, cannot be 

 materially increased, and as to the Indians, the principal reli- 

 ance in the remote districts, I do not think that additional 

 forces worth speaking of can be obtained. However, this ques- 

 tion of labor, in view of the sanitary and other improvements 

 stated above, will not to any extent interfere with the natural 

 increase of the annual output. 



" I do not doubt that in the course of time enthusiastic 

 prophets will arise, predicting all sorts of things about very 

 large or small crops, to further their own speculative ideas and 

 interests, and by doing so disturb the course of the consuming 

 markets. I may for instance cite the prophecies for the crop 

 year of 1901-02. Some people predicted a very small crop — as 

 much as 20 per cent, shortage. These prophecies were plausi- 

 bly based on the presumption that the severe financial crisis 

 at that time existing in Pard and Mandos (a natural reac- 

 tion following senseless overtrading and other commercial er- 

 rors) would interfere with supplying the necessities of life to 

 the rubber gatherers, to the extent that work in some districts 

 would have to be abandoned. Well, it turned out that the 

 1901-02 crop surpassed the previous crop by about 8 per cent. 

 Those prophets had not taken into consideration that a great 



portion of none too honest rubber gatherers, who had been 

 working under masters, apparently abandoned their territory 

 without delivering to its owners the rubber they had gathered, 

 but in some way the rubber found its way to market. 



" The proper control of the labor at some interior points is an 

 impossibility. Many of the poor ignorant gatherers cannot 

 withstand the temptation of making what they consider a for- 

 tune in a short time, without paying any attention to the wrong 

 they do to their masters, who advanced the necessaries of 

 life to them in good faith. Many aviadores (merchants who do 

 the trading in the interior) who were largely indebted to the 

 Pard and Mandos merchants were, in consequence of not get- 

 ting the expected rubber, unable to meet their obligations, and 

 thus assisted in causing the financial crisis. I feel convinced 

 that all available rubber trees, worth tapping, were tapped, and 

 will always be tapped. 



"After the time, many years ago, when rubber ceased to be 

 exported in the shape of shoes, the state of Pard was the first 

 to inaugurate the collecting of rubber on a large scale and ex- 

 porting it in its present shape. In the course of time Pard has 

 been far surpassed in the quantity of output by the state of 

 Amazonas and other upriver districts. Almost the whole state 

 of Par has now been explored, and consequently the output of 

 rubber from this quarter will remain more or less stationary, 

 though it may yet show a slight increase, independent of the 

 fact that the year 1902 showed an exceptionally large output 

 for Pard state. But the upriver districts will be the great factor 

 in the gradual general increase of the output of rubber from 

 the Amazons. In a good many districts in Pard the rubber 

 trees have become exhaused and abandoned, but as the Almighty 

 is the best friend of Brazil, I suppose that new trees will ap- 

 pear in time, and that the now abandoned districts may be 

 reopened. 



" When the whole rubber area of the upriver regions, un- 

 doubtedly containing many virgin districts, has been fully de- 

 veloped and explored, many trees will be abandoned or ex- 

 hausted, just as is the case in the state of Pard. One hopeful 

 feature is that people are endeavoring to take better care of 

 the trees and give them a ' rest' now and then, and introduce 

 better systems of rubber gathering. Whether rubber planta- 

 tions will ever be successfully established or whether the Bra- 

 zil's paternal government will try, in its own interest, through 

 wise and practical advice, to stimulate the slumbering energy 

 and good common sense of its obedient and docile, but intimi- 

 dated subjects, is hard to say. The good people on the Ama- 

 zon are too much accustomed to shutting their eyes and trust- 

 ing in Providence. 



" You might quote the opinion of a clever and patriotic Bra- 

 zilian politician, expressed at Rio de Janeiro many years ago, 

 of the character of his own countrymen : 



