October i, 1903.] 



THE INDIA RUBBER WORLD 



Comquanto nos estejamosaccordados o paiz atraze 2 passos, no nosso 

 somno Deus, mesmo contra a nossa vontade, nos puxa para deante 3. 

 [meaning in English : Whilst we are wide awake during the day, our 

 country goes back two steps, but when asleep God pushes it against our 

 own will three steps ahead.] 



" Thus nature will push the rubber output of the gigantic, 

 beautiful, and marvelously favored Amazonas, and if it fails in 



one corner it will be made up in another, and with it the whole 

 rubber business will go ahead in Brazil, giving to everybody 

 concerned a chance to make money, or lose it. In any event, I 

 am convinced that for many years to come Brazil will be 

 able to furnish large quantities of rubber, unsurpassed in qual- 

 ity by the product of any other country and perhaps not ap- 

 proached by any." 



A COMPARISON OF RUBBER PRICES. 



THE diagram on this page, indicating the fluctuations in 

 the price of Para rubber for the past eighteen years, is 

 based upon a record of the highest New York price- 

 month by month. It may possess a historical interest, 

 showing as it does at a glance the course of the market during 

 a longer period than most persons who will see this page have 

 been concerned about the price of rubber. But any attempt to 

 analyze the causes of the fluctuations here outlined, particu- 

 larly with a view to propounding some law governing the mar- 

 ket, is met by some very inconvenient obstacles. 



The size of stocks regulates prices less directly than might be 

 supposed. Stocks of Para rubber in the United States and 

 Europe — not counting supplies at ParA and afloat — on Decem- 

 ber 31 of each year have averaged about 3,000,000 pounds. The 

 smallest stocks for the end of any year were reported in 1S95 

 (1,765,000 pounds), at which date the highest quotation for 

 Para sorts was only 78 cents. The largest stocks (5.000,000 

 pounds, at the end of 1901) were coincident with prices about 

 6 cents higher. The highest prices shown in the chart were 

 reached at a time when stocks were considerably above the 

 average. The lowest price, however (in 1889), belongs to a 

 period of low stocks. 



The rate of consumption — something not always easily esti- 

 mated at the time — must also be taken into account. For the 

 years of industrial depression in the United States, in the early 

 '90S, the chart shows a low average of prices. The more recent 

 decline was aided by the failure of a New York importing 



house, which exposed an unsuspected surplus of rubber, and 

 was coincident with depression in the industry in some European 

 countries. No condition of stocks will lead to high prices 

 when the buying demand is light. Yet, on the whole, the law 

 of supply and demand does operate in regard to rubber the same 

 as every other commodity, and the most recent advance is not sur- 

 prising in view of the admitted short supplies in every market 

 in the world. 



The high prices of 1890-91 were attributed at the time to, 

 speculative manipulation, managed during the latter part of the 

 period by Vianna, of Para, though his activity really was mani- 

 fested too late for him to realize any profits. Every consider- 

 able advance, by the way, is charged by consumers to specula- 

 tion, though evidence generally has been lacking that the 

 world's supplies have been largely held by any one interest. 

 Just now an English firm are widely reputed (in this country) 

 to be pursuing a policy in raising rubber prices which their 

 competitors have not strongly attempted to oppose. But 

 English authorities, on the other hand, insist that the prevail- 

 ing prices are not speculative, but due to the unusually small 

 supplies, coupled with a heavy consuming demand and uncer- 

 tainty as to the future. 



The highest prices ever reached, however — $1.20 in 1882 — 

 were due wholly to the first speculative movement engineered 

 by Vianna at Para. He did have a virtual monopoly for awhile 

 and controlled the market as has never been done since, but 

 the pSiod of extreme prices was very brief. 



PARA RUBBER PRICES FOR EIGHTEEN YEARS (BASED ON HIGHEST NEW YORK PRICE IN EACH MONTH.) 



