106 



THE INDIA RUBBER WORLD 



[January i, 1904. 



showing of hands, without doubt would be voted "good," 

 and most of those engaged in it would be content to do as 

 well another year. Furthermore, not a few manufacturers 

 are known to entertain the firm belief that 1904 will not 

 suffer by comparison with 1903, so far as the rubber trade 

 is concerned. 



In printing, on another page, some expressions by repre- 

 sentative rubber manufacturers, the views of leaders in 

 the mechanical goods trade have been sought, on account 

 of the great extent of this branch, and the great diversity 

 of its products. As for the rubber boot and shoe trade, the 

 factories have been exceptionally busy, and their product 

 promptly distributed, but without heavier snowfalls before 

 the end of the season dealers may find themselves with 

 larger stocks than last year. In regard to various lines 

 of specialties, some of the old time makers look with dis- 

 favor upon large manufacturers in other lines who take up 

 such goods as side lines, thereby upsetting established 

 trade conditions. Still, in every branch, the factories have 

 kept busy, and there appears no sign of approaching inac- 

 tivity. Everybody cannot make tires, of course, but the 

 year's demand for tires promises to be so large as to keep 

 some concerns out of the general competition, thereby giv- 

 ing the other concerns a freer field. 



While the above remarks apply especially to the indus- 

 try in the United States, the same conditions in a large 

 measure exist in the leading rubber manufacturing coun- 

 tries. The world used an exceptional amount of rubber 

 in 1903, due to the fact that more people than ever wanted 

 rubber goods ; raw materials were higher everywhere 

 alike, and smaller profits than usual sometimes resulted. 

 There have been no important failures in the trade. Those 

 which have occurred in the United States cannot all be 

 set down to poor trade conditions, and doubtless a similar 

 assertion may be made regarding the industry abroad. 



THE CONTROL OF RUBBER PRICES. 



T N discussing crude rubber prices, our London contempo- 

 *■ rary found occasion recently to observe : "To our minds 

 the influence of dealers in crude rubber has been exagger- 

 ated out of all resemblance to the real." At least no proof 

 has ever been offered of the contention by many buyers 

 of crude rubber for consumption that they are made to pay 

 unduly high prices by improper manipulation of the mar- 

 ket. It has been our observation that from time to time 

 the conditions of trading in rubber have changed materi- 

 ally, and that dealers have succeeded or failed, in propor- 

 tion as they have adapted themselves to circumstances 

 over which they had no control. 



One may at the same time hear the assertion that rub- 

 ber prices are being controlled arbitrarily in Liverpool 

 and in New York, according as one happens to be on one 

 side or the other of the Atlantic. At the same time, also, 

 a rise or fall in rubber is attributed to influences at Para 

 or on the continent. But this mysterious influence is 

 always as elusive, when search is made for it, as the " rub- 

 ber trust " which, according to the newspapers, has been 

 in control of the rubber industry as far back as we can re- 



member. There is no man living who can predict either 

 the production or consumption of rubber twelve months, 

 or six months, or even three months ahead, and it is as 

 little possible to say what prices will be. If such predic- 

 tions could be made with certainty, the India-rubber mer- 

 chants would speedily rank with the richest men of the 

 day. 



We fail to find, however, that the profits of this trade 

 are signally larger than in any other important branch, giv- 

 ing employment to men of equal business capacity. One 

 thing to be noted is that, in proportion to the number of 

 houses in the two branches, the manufacturers appear to 

 continue in successful careers longer than the dealers in 

 raw materials. For example, in a list of 45 rubber con- 

 signees at Liverpool and London printed by our contem- 

 porary seventeen years ago, only three names now appear 

 in the trade, while of all the New York firms receiving 

 rubber in 1881, only one is now so engaged. Did all the 

 others make so much money in rubber that they could af- 

 ford to retire ? At any rate, most of the important rubber 

 factories or two decades ago, both in England and Amer- 

 ica, are still in operation, and most of them on a larger 

 and more prosperous scale. 



To recur to the article in our contemporary, its editor 

 appears to have encountered in the British rubber trade a 

 feeling of distrust of reports on the raw material market, 

 on the ground of their being apt to be controlled by " the 

 influence " which has been engaged " in building up the 

 crude rubber trade." It is interesting, in this connection, 

 to note that the London Electrical Review, which only now 

 and then touches upon the crude rubber situation, and 

 which cannot reasonably be supposed to have been subsi- 

 dized by " the influence " above referred to, has this to 

 say in its issue of December 11 : 



The prevailing idea that speculation on the part of a few individuals 

 has done as much or more than anything else to run up the price may be 

 dismissed as having very little foundation. True, there is a certain im- 

 portant firm of raw rubber merchants who are credited rightly or wrong- 

 ly with holding stock to such an extent as to rule the market, and to ren- 

 der futile the efforts of competitors to control any action they may see 

 fit to take. But whether this be so or not we are certainly not Inclined 

 to ascribe to this firm the fact that rubber reached such a high price two 

 months ago. That the firm in question have profited by the situation can 

 hardly be doubted ; to say that they created it is, however, far too bold 

 a statement to make. We say this not only because we lack proofs, but 

 because there are other and good reasons to look elsewhere for the deter- 

 mining factor or factors. The employment of rubber has shown a con- 

 tinual increase, and though the output of raw rubber from the Amazo- 

 nian forests has also increased, it has only been about in proportion to 

 the demand, so that there has been no accumulation of stock to meet any 

 sudden disparity between demand and supply. There is no need to dis- 

 cuss the question of any failure of supply in South America, at all events. 

 There is plenty of rubber yet, but in order to keep the price down, it is 

 necessary that sufficient be gathered at the time it is wanted. 



While not assuming to say actually how much rubber 

 may have been held at any time by the Liverpool house in 

 question, we may state that, according to reports gener- 

 ally credited in the trade, their holdings of Para (excluding 

 Peruvian), in " first hands " and " second hands," on the 

 1 st of each of ten months past, averaged about 440 tons, out 

 of average total holdings in Liverpool of about 1040 tons, 



