January i, 1904.] 



THE INDIA RUBBER WORLD 



125 



VIEWS OF RUBBER MANUFACTURERS. 



I— A GOOD YEAR PAST J A BETTER COMING. 

 ' ' ' I "HE year 1903 is of course the banner year in the rubber 

 A trade. From January to July the business in me- 

 chanical rubber goods was something unprecedented, and while 

 it has fallen off some during the fall months, it still has been 

 good. The tire business was not remarkable during the first 

 part of the year, but it has been exceedingly good during the 

 fall, the business for October being in excess of anything we 

 have ever known. On the whole, I think that the year's busi- 

 ness in rubber goods was from 10 to fifteen per cent, more than 

 last year, and that was the best up to that time." 



" How about next year ? " 



" I expect next year's business to be even greater. The coun- 

 try is prosperous, the crops good, the strikes and the depres- 

 sion in the iron industry about over, and the financial panic is 

 straightening out. I see no reason for any alarm on the part 

 of the rubber manufacturer. There is plenty of rubber to be 

 had and the prospects are bright. 



" I look for next year's business to be profitable. Orders for 

 goods are rather over the average, and I see no reason why the 

 manufacturers should not make money. Consumers are ready 

 to pay fair prices for what they want. A few years ago there 

 was a great demand for cheap bicycle tires, but the users were 

 not satisfied, and soon learned that good honest-rubber tires 

 were the cheapest that could be made. People are learning 

 the same thing about automobile tires; low priced tires that 

 were in demand a year ago won't sell at all now. The average 

 price paid for automobile tires in 1904 will be higher than 1903, 

 and there will be more of them sold. 



" Some manufacturers seem to be alarmed about the supply 

 of rubber. Now I don't believe that there is any liklihood of the 

 supply giving out, or that rubber will be made abnormally high 

 this year. Speculators may put prices up again, as they did 

 last September, but they will not stay up, because the demand 

 does not warrant it. I figure that the consumption of rubber 

 for a good while to come will remain as large as it is today, 

 because new uses for it are coming up all the time, but I don't 

 look for any such great increase in the demand for rubber 

 goods as will warrant continuous high prices for the material 

 Improvements continue to be made in compounding, making 

 necessary less rubber to produce goods of the same quality, and 

 other materials come in to displace rubber goods, all of which 

 relieves the pressure of the demand for rubber." 



II. — BUSY ALL LAST YEAR AND STILL BUSY. 



" We don't know how other factories may have fared, but we 

 have had all the business we could do. The year has been the 

 best we have ever known — all that we could possibly desire, even 

 with the high price of raw material, As for next year, we have 

 no reason to anticipate a falling off in trade. We have enough 

 business in hand to keep us busy the first part of the year and 

 our salesmen are making no discouraging reports. General 

 business is in a good condition and that means good business 

 for the rubber men. 



" We found during the early part of the year that the demand 

 for mechanical goods was going to be very large, and we pro- 

 vided for it in our purchases of materials. We found later that 

 we had not misjudged the increased demand, and when rubber 

 was so high somewhat better prices prevailed for finished goods, 

 so our profits were all that we could expect. We do not believe 

 that rubber next year will average as high as it has this, and 

 there will probably be some reduction in prices of goods, but 

 we figure that our factory will run full time all year, and that 



means good business for us. I cannot see why there should be 

 any pessimists in the rubber industry." 



Ill — TRADE LARGE, BUT PROFITS TOO SMALL. 



" This year's business has been about the same in volume as 

 the business of the year before. I think with some factories it 

 would show up less and with some it would be more. But the 

 profits have not been correspondingly large, so that the year 

 really has not been as good as some other years. The truth of 

 the matter is that the rubber manufacturing business has been 

 badly cut up by competition. This has had an effect on prices, 

 and on profits. During the present year the cost of manufac- 

 ture has increased and the return for the manufactured pro- 

 duct has not increased ; in fact, it has slightly decreased. The 

 price of rubber has averaged from 20 to 35 per cent, higher 

 than during 1903 ; the price of cotton duck has advanced, the 

 price of coal has been more for us than it was last year, for 

 the reason that it was not as cheap last spring as it was in the 

 spring of 1902. Hence our goods have cost more to make than 

 last year. 



" On the other hand, many more people have gone into 

 miking mechanical rubber goods of late years, and these peo- 

 ple, in order to get business, have not only cut prices to a con- 

 siderable extent, but have bid for business in all directions. 

 There is no such thing as an old concern holding on to its busi- 

 ness in any special lines, although every one of us have custom- 

 ers who will give us the preference. In all ordinary lines the 

 new competition is sharp and returns have been less, although 

 the volume of business has not decreased." 



" What do you think the next year will show ? " 



" That, of course, is guess work. These are the dull months 

 in mechanical goods, but our orders for spring deliveries have 

 been fair and current business is coming in as well as we have 

 any reason to expect at this season of the year. But I do not 

 anticipate that next year is going to be any better than this. As 

 a matter of fact, all business has been rather reacting from its 

 high water mark during the last nine months. We are getting 

 down to a more conservative basis, and while the rubber goods 

 business has never had any particular ' boom ' the drawing in 

 in other lines will necessarily affect it. The financial panic, the 

 cutting of dividends on many securities, the strikes, the in- 

 crease of business troubles, all will have an effect to keep the 

 demand for rubber goods from running far ahead. 



" Still, the necessity for mechanical rubber goods becomes 

 more and more imperative. There was a time when rubber 

 belting, rubber hose, rubber clothing, rubber floor coverings, 

 and other rubber staples were very much less necessities than 

 they are now. I believe that every year adds to the standing 

 of this kind of goods and consequently increases the demand 

 regardless of trade conditions. So I do not look for any falling 

 off next year; nor do I look for any ' boom.' Conservative 

 business men will make money, but they will make less on the 

 same volume of business than heretofore." 



BY A CHICAGO CORRESPONDENT. 



While the demand for mechanical rubber goods in the ter- 

 ritory supplied from Chicago has been exceptionally heavy dur- 

 ing the past year, the trade has not been altogether satisfactory 

 to the distributing agents in this city. That is to say, the rate 

 of profits has hardly been commensurate with the volume of 

 business. The demand was exceedingly good at the beginning 

 of 1903, and continued to increase for several months at a rate 

 which promised to make this a record breaking year. It isgen- 

 erally agreed, however, that laterly a decline has been experi- 

 enced in this respect. As to the future, there is a diversity 

 of opinion. The managers of some houses hold to the idea 



