August i, 1904.] 



THE INDIA RUBBER WORLD 



367 



reports, but on the whole those made on commercial sub- 

 jects by the American service are probably superior to 

 those published by any other country. There remain a few 

 consuls, however, who certainly do prove exceptions to the 

 rule, and it seems that an undue proportion of these have 

 found berths in districts where crude rubber interests have 

 to be dealt with. 



THE COTTON CROP OUTLOOK. 



THE American cotton crop is passing through its crucial 

 period. The idea generally prevails that it is doing fair- 

 ly well, and that the largest yield in the history of the United 

 States is promised this season. The department of agriculture, 

 in its latest monthly report, gave the highest condition at the 

 same date for years, with two exceptions, and this, together with 

 the tremendous increase in acreage, readily leads to the con- 

 clusion that the possibilities are much beyond the ordinary. The 

 weather bureau reports and advices from other than official 

 sources lend color to the same theory, rendering it difficult to 

 escape the conviction that a record breaking yield is in store. 

 Railroad officials in the south and southwest have contributed 

 largely to the fund of bearish predictions, and a crop of 12,000,. 

 000 bales seems to be the minimum in the minds of these gentle- 

 men. 



But it cannot be denied that there is another month full of 

 possibilities, and it will not do to take a too optimistic view 

 of the situation. The wholecritical period lies within the next 

 five weeks. Already complaints are more frequent regarding 

 the future process. There has been too much rain in the 

 Mississippi and Arkansas valleys, and there is too rapid growth 

 of stalk, while the plant has failed to fruit rapidly. Some plant- 

 ers place the damage on account of rain at from 10 to 15 per 

 cent., and the prospect is far less favorable than it was a fort- 

 night ago. ft is now feared that the weather will, after a long 

 period of rainfall, turn very hot, thus inflicting serious injury. 

 Some are anticipating that with a change of high tempera- 

 ture the crop will suffer a similar decline to that experienced 

 in 1896, when the most magnificent prospects ever known were 

 blighted by excessive heat, following a period of prolonged rain- 

 fall such as that through which the south has just been passing. 



Manipulation, of course, is the keynote to the changes in 

 prices. The recent advances to more than 10 cents for Sep- 

 tember delivery and to above 9.80 for December, in the minds 

 of many, bore the earmarks of manipulation. Sentiment is 

 naturally bearish, and the main features are favorable to a 

 lower range of values. The southern cotton manufacturers are 

 not all agreed as to the basis of staple prices for cotton goods to 

 be consumed next year. They apparently do not, however, 

 vary widely in their opinions, as is shown by the expressions of 

 visitors to the New York market recently, who have had ample 

 opportunity to study the new crop situation. The most bear- 

 ish mill man who has been heard to talk places the basis at 

 9 cents, while a few say 9% cents, but the majority are calculat- 

 ing on paying 10 cents for their cotton. They claim that the 

 southern planters are too astute to allow the price to go below 

 the latter figure, ft is known that certain manufacturers of 

 cotton duck are planning to do business on this basis. 



Wide fluctuations have occurred between 13^ cents in 

 February and 10.70 to-day. The variations in the price of spot 

 cotton have been in sympathy with the market for futures, 

 which is influenced by the favorable outlook for a larger crop. 

 Actual spot business has been small, and the low prices now 

 prevailing do not represent a corresponding shrinkage in the 



value of the cotton in stock. They have been brought about 

 by the abnormal conditions now prevailing. From a very con- 

 servative calculation it is not safe for the mechanical rubber 

 people, or any of the other consumers of cotton duck and light 

 weight sheetings, to figure on paying prices based on anything 

 below g}4 centcotton, and probably iocents, the last mentioned 

 figure depending on the development of the staple crop during 

 the coming five weeks. 



There are other factors than the weather to take into ac- 

 count in figuring on a large crop, the most important of which 

 is the labor question. It is held by many that it will be impos- 

 sible to pick more than 11,000,000 bales under the most favor- 

 able conditions. Planters who have been endeavoring, at New 

 York, to engage newly arrived foreigners have met with poor 

 success, and the labor question is going to be a formidable one 

 in the harvesting of the coming crop of cotton. 



In response to continued inquiries regarding the new 

 Colorado rubber mentioned so profusely in some Western 

 newspapers, we are obliged to say that the production promised 

 at the end of sixty days has not been realized. But rubber is 

 an exceptionally costly commodity just now, while talk remains 

 as cheap as ever. This may explain why the Colorado pro- 

 moters thus far have produced more talk than rubber. 



BOUNTY ON MEXICAN RUBBER. 



IN our issue of June 1 appeared a copy of a letter addressed 

 by the Editor of The India Rubber World to the Presi- 

 dent of Mexico, suggesting the offer of a bounty on rubber pro- 

 duced under cultivation in that republic. It was also suggested 

 to those interested in planting that their cooperation in bring- 

 ing this matter before the Mexican government would lend 

 weight to the suggestion. From the following expressions, se- 

 lected from a number of letters received on the subject by Mr. 

 Pearson, it appears that the suggestion has met widespread ap- 

 proval among the planting companies, and that strong repre- 

 sentations to the Mexican authorities will be made. Some of 

 those heard from have been : 



Mexican Dsvelotmbnt and Construction Co. of Wisconsin, Oshkosh, Wiscon- 

 sin. 

 Relative to your letter of May 27 to his Excellency the President of 

 Mexico in favor of the proposed bounty on cultivated rubber, we have 

 acted on your valuable suggestion and trust all others interested in rub- 

 ber cultivation will do the same. 



Isthmus Plantation Association of Mhxico — C G. Cox, secretary, Milwaukee, 

 Wisconsin. 

 I should think that the combined efforts of the Americans who are 

 doing business in Mexico would have a great deal of weight in getting 

 this bounty. Should we not succeed, the agitation cannot help but be 

 beneficial to all interested in Mexico. I think you have started a good 

 work,*and I would ask you to kindly accept our thanks for your efforts 

 in behalf of the raisers of cultivated rubber in Mexico. 



Tabasco Commercial Co., Hartford, Connecticut. 



We wish to thank you for your interest and attempts to help along the 

 cause which we believe will come out all right for those who work hon- 

 estly and patiently. 



Commonwealth Mexican Plantation Association, Chicago. 



In regard to a bounty on Mexican rubber, we have written to Presi 

 dent Diaz on the lines of your letter to him, and hope for good results. 



The Tehuantepec Rubber Culture Co. — Squire Garnsey, secretary. New York. 

 Under date of June 15 we wrote our Mr. Luther, calling attention to 

 your letter to the President, dated May 27. He replies June 24, stat- 

 ing that he has written a letter to Senator Moran, at the Capital. I 

 think Mr. Luther's effort will culminate in something, in that Senator 

 Moran has recently become an active member of the Mexican Planters' 



