1887.1 ^ * ^ [Blasins. 



Ihe Signal Service Buremi. Its Methods and ResnUs. Bi/ William Blasiuft. 



(Read before the American Philosophical Society, May 6, 1SS7.) 



In 1872 the Leipzig Conference propounded this question, with others, 

 to the principal meteorologists of the ■world : "Are you of the opinion 

 that the present state of our knowledge of the weather justifies giving 

 definite prophecies or predictions instead of the telegraphic communication 

 of facts, or shall we limit ourselves to intimations upon the state of the at- 

 mosphere in the surrounding countries, from which the receivers of tlie 

 communications may deduce their own rules?" 



The replies were almost uniformly in the negative, and among them 

 that of the very distinguished meteorologist. Prof. Buys-Ballot, of Utrecht, 

 who said : "No prophecies, if we do not want to bring this matter into 

 discredit. It is impossible for tlie director to say on which part of the coast 

 the wind will blow first, and be the strongest, if he does not await the be- 

 ginning of the storm at a place at some distance, and then it is too late. 

 Tlie state of the weather may be given. Every one may have the fixed 

 rules by which, from this state, he may deduce his own results." And 

 then, in a humopous way, he adds : " He who shall predict tlie weather, if 

 he does it conscientiously and with inclination, will have no quiet life 

 anymore, and runs great risk of becoming crazy from nervousness." 



The United States Signal Service Bureau has from the beginning — owing 

 to the nature of its organization perhaps — taken a different course ; it has 

 devoted its chief efforts to pr.edidion and signaling, while the study of 

 nature and its laws has received but scant attention. And what is the re- 

 sult"? Can it now give the "fixed rules," of whicli Buys-Ballot speaks, 

 by which every one may be enabled to form some judgment of the 

 weather? What additions to meteorological science has it ever made? 

 Is there even one valuable result in all its voluminous literature that can- 

 not be found in the prior works of others? If so, where and what is it? 

 Nay, more. It has published during the last twenty j'ears a vast con- 

 glomeration of facts and observations, at great expense of labor, intelli- 

 gence and money, but from all this great material have any meteorologists 

 the world over been able to make generalizations that have been accepted 

 as sound and valuable? 



I think, upon reflection, we must all see that the answer cannot be 

 affirmative, and that when the results of the Signal Service Bureau's work 

 are summed up, it is found to be utterly disproportionate to the means at 

 its disposal, even in the matter of prediction. Its methods must therefore 

 be at fault. Let us examine. 



At the close of our civil war, upon the suggestion of the late Prof. 

 Henry, the Telegraph Corps, whose services in the field as an active part 

 of the army were no longer needed, was reorganized as the Signal Service 

 Bureau, and its officers and soldiers became at one stroke, full-fledged me- 

 teorologists, but remained under strict army discipline, and worked under 



