December 1, 1916. 



THE INDIA RUBBER WORLD 



151 



Interesting Letters from Our Readers. 



FUTURE SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN CRUDE 

 RUBBER. 



To THE Editor of the India Rubber World : 



DEAR SIR — The probable course of the rubber market 

 after the war is becoming a , source of diverse opinion 

 among the trade. Until peace has been declared, the 

 market will be extremely sensitive, but what of supply and 

 demand after that? 



Of course the former German and Austrian consumption of 

 about 20,000 tons annually is offset by the needs of the American 

 automobile tire industry, that has absorbed most of the increased 

 output of crude rubber. The outcome of a return to normal 

 conditions, however, will depend upon this production as com- 

 pared with the logical increase of the world's consumption. 

 Replenishing tlie exhausted supply of the Teutonic nations will 

 cause only a temporary flurry. Cheap synthetic rubber does not 

 promise to become a factor, although German chemists have 

 been spurred to great efiforts in this direction. 



In an attempt to forecast future production and consumption 

 several significant facts have been presented in Rickinson's 

 monthly review of "The World's Rubber Position," and in "The 

 Financial Times," London. 



Regarding production, it is stated that the output of wild 

 rubber from Brazil and elsewhere has been practically the same 

 for several years and probably will remain so, but that the 

 development of rubber plantations- increased the world's output 

 31.8 per cent in 1915, while the increase for 1916 is estimated at 

 27.3 per cent. As no considerable areas have been planted since 

 1911, however, the belief is expressed that this rate of increase 

 is not likely to be maintained. Although 214,000 acres were 

 brought into bearing in 1911, it is pointed out that the total 

 increase between now and 1920 will probably not exceed 377,000 

 acres, so that any greatly expanded output must be the result 

 of increased production per acre. The average yield, I under- 

 stand, is now 336 pounds per acre, and in 1920 it may have 

 reached 400 to 4S0 pounds. This would insure a world's output 

 of 300,000 to 330.000 tons, provided the wild rubber supply 

 remains constant. 



To forecast consumption appears to be far more difficult. 

 During the past six years the average increase in the United 

 States has been 24 per cent. Were that rate maintained there 

 would be a serious rubber shortage in 1920 ; indeed, an increase 

 in the world's demand of 20 per cent per annum would require 

 373,000 tons in 1920. While such a continued increase seems 

 improbable, there is every indication that the growth of the 

 motor car industry, the use of rubber for new purposes and the 

 certain requirements of Europe after the war may render the 

 expected increase from plantations during the next five years 

 none too great to meet the world's requirements. 



ANOTHER VIEW. 



To THE Editor of The India Rubber World: 



DEAR SIR — We believe it fair to assume that as the pres- 

 ent plantation trees age, the girth being larger, the out- 

 put of late.x will increase in proportion, but when this year- 

 ly increased production ceases to be an important factor. 

 we are not prepared to say. and, therefore, will not calculate any 

 increase beyond 16 years of age, considering the output after this 

 period at maximum. Therefore the following is based upon : 

 1st — Tree will reach its maximum output at 16 years 

 of age. ■ 



2nd — No planting after 1915, other than enough to take 

 care of such as may die, or be destroyed. The 

 acreage January 1, 1916, being 1,377,000. 

 3rd — A fair average increased production yearly from 

 the fourth year to the 16th, after which the output 

 remains the same. 

 On this basis of calculation we secure the following produc- 

 tion for the years indicated : 



PLANTATION RUBBER. 



Under Over 



Production. Estimated. Reported. Estimated. Estimated. 



1900 tons 4 



1901 5 



1902 8 



1903 21 



1904 43 



1905 145 



1906 510 



1907 1,000 



1908 1,800 



1909 4,950 3,600 1,350 



1910 10,302 8,200 2,102 



191! 21,350 14,419 6.931 



1912 33,510 28,518 4,922 



1913 48,574 47,618 956 



1914 70,182 71,380 1.198 



1915 100.536 107,767 7,332 



1916 132,962 150.000 17,038 



1917 167,085 



1918 203,252 



1919 . 242.081 



1920 281,330 .... 



1921 320,562 ...'... 



1922 361.075 



1923 397,321 



1924 423,723 



1925 446,496 



1926 469,233 



1927 483,030 



1928 494,356 



1929 503,261 



1930 508,794 



1931 510,311 ...... 



The yearly increase progresses proportionately, but with a 

 lessened percentage of increase each year up to 1931, when all 

 trees planted prior to January 1 last, would reach their sixteenth 

 year of maturity, and during which year the output would be 

 510,311 tons, after which the production would remain the 

 same. 



According to these figures there is ample crude gum in sight, 

 and the riddle of the future appears to be on the consumer's side 

 more than on the side of the producer, as it is hardly possible 

 that the acreage under cultivation will not be increased beyond 

 what it is at this time, to say nothing whatever about the 

 increased latex from the trees as they reach a period beyond 16 

 years of age. In the above we have not included any wild 

 rubbers, covering the plantation product only. 



A LARGE RUBBER FIRM'S OPTIMISTIC OPINION. 



To THE Editor of The Indi.\ Rubber World : 



DEAR SIR — So many industries are face to face with con- 

 stantly decreasing supplies of raw material and ever in- 

 creasing demands that the contrast aft'orded by the rubber busi- 

 ness looms up vividly. 



In 1905 uncultivated or "native" rubber comprised 60.800 tons, 

 while in 1914 the production had dropped to 60,000 tons. But 

 during the same period plantation rubber had risen from 145 to 

 64,000 tons. From the best available figures we estimate that 

 while native rubber production will have fallen to 34.500 tons 

 in 1917, plantation rubber will have reached 147,000 tons. By 

 1921 probably 209.000 tons of cultivated rubber will be available, 

 while tlie supply of native ruliber will have dropped to 30,000 

 tons. 



When crude rubber readies tliat level of cost which vastly 

 increased supplies would indicate, myriad new uses will be added 

 to those for which the present relatively limited production is 



