February 1, 1917.1 



THE INDIA RUBBER WORLD 



301 



Crude Rubber During 1916. 



THE crude rubber market for the year opened with the 

 November advance still continuing. On January 4 the 

 high mark was reached with First latex crepe, spot, selling 

 at $1.05, and Upriver fine, spot, at $1, prices which had not been 

 equaled since the spectacular advance in August, 1914. Small 

 stocks were responsible for the firm tone in Upriver fine, but 

 otherwise the market was purely speculative, due to the uncer- 

 tainty of arrivals. January imports at New York, however, 

 reached 9,400 tons, the largest monthly receipts since March and 

 April, 1915, so that on February 1, First late.x and Smoked sheet 

 had dropped to 76 cents, and Upriver fine to 73 cents. 



Imports were smaller during February, and consumers were 

 interested only in immediate requirements. Forward deliveries 

 were uncertain, due to lack of cargo space and slow shipment. 

 Values, however, ranged upward, reflecting the generally firm 

 London market until on February 29 First latex, spot, was 

 quoted at 93 to 94 cents, and Upriver fine 11 to 78 cents. Con- 

 trary to custom, London futures were at a premium over spot 

 rubber, indicating that lack of adequate shipping facilities con- 

 stantly threaten the rubber market. 



March trading was steady, but comparatively small. New 

 York arrivals showed increasing volume, and shipments of 

 plantation rubber from the Far East by way of the Pacific Coast 

 became more frequent. This route is slow, chiefly because of 

 railway car shortage in America, but the war zone and its perils, 

 also the eastern freight congestion, are avoided thereby, and 

 consequent high cargo and insurance rates. Minor fluctuations 

 netted a decline of 2 to 3 cents during the month. 



Direct shipments to America from the Far East by way of 

 the Pacific Coast continued in large volume during April, 5,810,127 

 pounds being reported as having arrived by that route. Trad- 

 ing was slight, and on April 25 First latex, spot, had declined 

 to 80 cents. Smoked sheet ribbed to 79 cents, and Upriver fine 

 to 71 cents. 



May prices still sought lower levels. Apathetic trading re- 

 flected the dull tone of the London market. Because of back- 

 ward spring weather the anticipated tire business did not de- 

 velop, and manufacturers still had a large accumulated stock. 

 Imports considerably exceeded the previous month, and holders 

 of crude rubber were reluctant to accept orders under the 

 market. Futures higher than spot rubber in New York, with 

 the opposite prevailing in London, was a strange anomaly, re- 

 versing the February situation. On May 29 First latex, spot, had 

 reached 67 cents, Upriver fine, spot, 66, a decline of 10 and 3 

 cents respectively, within four weeks. 



June brought only the usual desultory trading. Upriver fine, 

 spot, had reached the low mark, 65 cents, June 1, and prices 

 generally continued to decline, although on June 15 Upriver 

 fine was selling at 2 cents premium over First latex. Specu- 

 lative interests, however, brought the market up on June 28 

 to 67 cents for Upriver fine, spot, and 61 cents for First latex, 

 spot. 



Then followed four months of comparative stagnation un- 

 usual in the history of the trade. Minor fluctuations were in 

 response to the London market. Imports continued heavy, a 

 new record of 800 tons being established at San Francisco in 

 July. Trading was extremely dull, sales being made in August 

 at less than ruling prices when First latex, spot, reached its 

 low mark of 56J/^ cents. Throughout this period Upriver fine 

 took the lead in demand and price. New shipments were de- 

 layed by abnormally low water on the Amazon ; stocks were 

 scant, and heavy Russian buying still further depleted them 



and advanced the price. Spot quotations in September fluctuated 

 from 70 to 75 cents. 



It was expected that the increased sale of rubber goods in 

 October would bring an active covering of crude rubber re- 

 quirements, and lower prices were indicated by reassuring re- 

 ports of increased production. But the buying movement did 

 not develop; imports were small and the trend of prices took 

 an upward turn. The temporary fright occasioned by nearby 

 German submarine operations sent prices up 3 to 5 cents on 

 October 9, and although they partially subsided later, Upriver 

 fine was quoted at 81 cents on October 30, First latex, 63J4 

 cents. 



This general upward trend in the market continued throughout 

 the year. All grades of crude rubber were in good demand and 

 toward the end of November trading became quite lively, with 



Upriver Fine First Latex Crepe. 



Chart Showing Fluctuations in Para and Plantation Spot 

 Rubber, 1916. 



London shipments placed at 40 days and somewhat delayed^ 

 On November 28 Upriver fine was selling at 78 cents, First 

 latex and Smoked sheet ribbed at 73 cents. London market 

 conditions were generally firm with higher price levels sup- 

 ported by the British program of industrial expansion, and the 

 government's requisition of more than half of the London 

 stocks of 10,000 tons available November 1. Restricted permits 

 at Singapore, lack of cargo space, and the loss of the "Arabia'" 

 with 350 tons of rubber on board also had their influence. 



The first fortnight of December witnessed heavy buying in 

 plantation rubber by large manufacturers. Para sorts, Africans 

 and Centrals moved freely in sympathy with the buying activity; 

 all recorded gains, with plantations leading the list. Holiday 

 dullness characterized the last two weeks of the month with 

 inquiries confined for the most part to futures. In London the 

 sharp advance of plantations, influenced by the submarine 

 menace, was followed by heavy forward sales that checked thfr 

 buying movement. The ample supplies in sight would have 

 stemmed the tide of an advancing market had it not been for 

 the shortage of ship tonnage. On December 29 Upriver fine, 

 spot, was quoted at 78 cents, First latex, spot, and Smoked 

 sheet ribbed, spot, at 19 cents. 



THE LONDON VIEW OF THE 1916 MARKET. 



r^URING the year 1916 the trade in rubber was continued 

 *-^ under the emergency conditions introduced in 1915, and for 

 the most part shipments have reached consumers with remarkable 

 regularity and freedom. Lack of ship tonnage, however, became 

 a matter of ever mcreasing concern and is now the big probleiri 



