332 



THE INDIA RUBBER WORLD 



IMakcii 1, 1919. 



The London View of the 1918 Market. 



TllK Vl'.AR 1918 wiliicsscd a complete upset ol the normal 

 development of crude rubber supply and demand. The 

 trade had not foreseen how America's part in the war would 

 restrict imports and curtail consumption of crude ruDber, and 

 especially that it would so drastically reduce the production of 

 automobiles and pneumatic tires; but, notwithstanding the effort 

 to curtail all plantation production correspondingly, the world's 

 available stocks to-day are greater than ever before. Although 

 the demands for war purposes were large, America probably 

 used lib more than two-thirds of the 1917 consumption, being 

 helped by the large stocks there and afloat. The absence of the 

 Russian demand added to the reduced consumption, and Ger- 

 many and Austria can have had little to use. 



The total visible supply of crude rubber on December 31 was 

 estimated at about 87,000 tons, 7,000 tons afloat and 80,000 tons 

 in British, American, East Russian and Middle Eastern stocks, 

 or about 56,500 tons more than at the end of 1917. British stocks 

 on December 31 totaled 19,000 tons, of which about 18,000 tons 

 were plantation sorts. British imports and deliveries of all sorts 

 for the year were only 42,800 and 39,461 tons, respectively, 

 against 67,036 and 64,668 tons in 1917. Of these amounts 37,456 

 and 34,800 tons, respectively, were other than Para and Peruvian. 



With all American restrictions on the manufacture of motor 

 vehicles and tires now removed : with the passenger-car market 

 returning to normal, and the demand for trucks and solid tires 

 greater than ever; with a world shortage of rubber goods of 

 every sort; with the shipping situation constantly improving, 

 the prospect for 1919 is much brighter. Pre-war conditions will 

 gradually be reestablished, and this is believed to apply to the 

 packing of rubber as well as many other matters. 



The close press packing of plantation rubber to make a case 

 contain greater weight, introduced partially in the late autumn, 

 does not suit the Eropean market and is liable to cause deteriora- 

 tion of the rubber. Bales are also objected to. Strong, planed 

 wood cases of IVa-hundred weight size are preferred, especially 

 for sheets, which should be carefully packed laid flat, not folded. 



THE MARKET. 



At the beginning of the year plantation rulibers were very 

 close to their highest levels. In January standard crepe ranged 

 from 2s. 3d. to 2.?. 6%d. and smoked sheet from 2s. 2y2d. to 

 2s. 5^d. In March crepe brought as high as 2s. t'^d. and sheet 

 2s. Sy^d. Thereafter occurred a gradual decline with minor 

 fluctuations until in August standard crepe dropped as low as 

 2s. \d. and smoked sheet as low as 2s. An upward tendency 

 then developed and continued until November, when crepe sold as 

 high as 2s. 6d. and sheet as high as 2s. 5d. December quotations, 

 however, ranged from 2s. Z^Ad. to 2s. Ad. for standard crepe, 

 and from 2s. V/zd. to 2s. 3lid. for smoked sheet in response to 

 the easing of shipping conditions following the signing of the 

 armistice and the knowledge of accumulating stocks at Eastern 

 shipping points. 



February and March afforded opportunities to make sales at 

 good prices, as unwise speculators forced prices up at one time 

 to 2s. 9,]Ad. forward, resulting in many losses to buyers. But 

 estates took little advantage of making considerable sales for- 

 ward. Although shipping facilities were uncertain, undue n'"v- 

 ousness was shown in making forward sales, and good orders in 

 the spring for forward delivery in the East and London were 

 not executed, or only to a verj' limited degree. 



In June came unforeseen the decision of America to reduce 

 its importation and consumption of rubber by one-half. The 

 effect of this was greatly increased by the fact that planters 

 had sold such a small part of the 1918 crop for forward delivery. 

 Prices were forced down; a glut of rubber in the East, despite 



the efforts of the Rubber Growers' Association to stabilize the 

 market by curtailment of production, aided the depression, and 

 large sales at ridiculously low prices were made in the East — 

 as low as W/zd. ck go-down for rubber now worth Is. 9}/2<i. 



London brokers, well versed in the entire trade, believe this 

 panic could have been averted had they been employed with con- 

 fidence by the trade. They regard it as another proof that more 

 concentration of trade through London channels of selling will 

 secure a higher return to planters, is to the great advantage of 

 estates, and will be more so. Such a large and growing trade, 



"^ttPirAh 



sfd T r Jon Fefe^ Mar Apr Moy^ June July Aug Sfpt 



im 



H 



a 



^s; 



Dee. Jan, ftbi Mar Apr Hoy June July tua Stpl 



1918 



'53 



5Ss^5 



=;5: 



Si 



m 



(Malayan Tin & Rubber Journal.) 



Crude Rubber Top Prices in London and Singapore from 

 January, 1917, to September, 1918. 



they assert, must be conducted by larger sales of the succeeding 

 year's crop ; moreover, greater readiness to sell when there are 

 eager buyers will result to the benefit of planters by giving 

 large, long-established dealers a greater interest. Now that the 

 war is over they point out that rubber can be readily distributed 

 from England to all parts of the world and that larger London 

 stocks need cause no alarm, either on the score of dock space, 

 finance, or fear of deterioration of the rubber held in large 

 stocks. It is commonly said that "the absurd restriction of ex- 

 ports" from England must cease. 



Prices of Para rubber have been well sustained and have 

 shown a considerable premium over plantations. However, the 

 large daily supply of the latter from the Middle East, sold 

 forward or on arrival has naturally affected the demand for all 

 Brazilian grades. Imports of medium descriptions have gener- 

 ally fallen off. For certain grades a fair demand has prevailed, 

 but inferior, soft, weak rubbers have sold with difficulty at low 

 prices. The demand for caucho ball has greatly declined and 

 the price is much lower. 



In January hard fine Para ranged from 2.?. y^/id. to 2s. 9%d. 

 and in February sold as low as 2s. 6%d. Then occurred a grad- 

 ual rise until in September it ranged from 3s. 2^d. to 3s. 8d. 

 followed by a decline until in December it ranged from 2s. 7d. 

 to 2s. g'Ad. 



The following closing prices for recent years are of interest; 



Balata was in less supply and good demand throughout the 

 year, closing at 4s. Y^d. for sheet and 3s. QYzd. for block. Good 

 qualities of gutta percha realized high prices and at one time 

 jelutong prices were more than doubled, present quotations be- 

 ing about £40 c. i. f. 



