620 



THE INDIA RUBBER WORLD 



[August 1, 1919. 



and in all but lour of these instances variations above the general 

 price level were less than 10 per cent. In February, 1915, rulibcr 

 grices fell 16 per cent below the level of all commodities, and 

 from that time on the inde.x numbers of the rubber industry 

 and of commodities in genera! followed individual courses. The 

 latter, after remaining relatively static for some nine months, 

 ascended rapidly, reaching its first apex in July, 1917, at a point 

 89 per cent above the level of February, 1915. The governmental 

 policy of price-fixing inaugurated in the summer of 1917 re- 

 sulted in a slight recession, which continued until June of t'le 

 following year, when the upward course of prices was resume 1. 

 The year 1918 ended with the index number of all commodities 

 103 per cent above its pre-war level. 



The index number of the rubber industrv, on llie other hai'd, 



followed a rather slow upward course, which was interrupted 

 now and then by cycles of depression varying from 1 to 10 

 months in duration. At no time did it approach the index num- 

 ber of "all commodities," and throughout the period following 

 February, 1915, the price level of the rubber industry was ^t 

 least 16 per cent below that of commodities in general. This 

 difference in levels was highest in July, 1917, when the "all- 

 commodities" index number was 80 per cent above that of thf; 

 rubber industry. Throughout 1917 and 1918, in fact, the diverg- 

 ency existing between the two levels was one of great significance 

 and is to be found in the price fluctuations of but few industries. 

 The signing of the armistice found the price level of the rubber 

 industry 72 per cent below that of all commodities, or, in other 

 words, 31 per cent aliove its own level of 1913-1914. 



Influences Operating on the After-the-War Demand 

 for Rubber Goods. 



Bv I.. IV. AUi'yn-Srhmidl. 



GKE.\T EVENTS of such an elementary force as a world's war 

 must result in an upheaval of all the ordinary standards 

 ! of life. Progress advances at a higher speed than dur- 

 ing normal times and the world experiences the evolution of a 

 century in the comparatively short space of a few years. The 

 period which divides us to-day from the advent of the war is 

 s.till too short to enable us to realize fully what it has done to 

 hasten industrial and economic progress. As yet we have not 

 had a chance to draw the balance of loss and, gain. It certainly 

 has had a powerful influence upon inventors in all countries. 

 As to the rubber industry, it has so far been unable to utilize 

 synthetic rubber, but the field of application for the genuine 

 article has widened materially and the rubber industry emerges 

 from the war as a powerful factor in the economic life of the 

 world. 



, Tliis development cannot fail to exert a strong influence on 

 our domestic rubber industry in its relation to both home and 

 foreign markets. Considering the enormous strides made by the 

 American rubber industry in the expansion of its foreign influ- 

 ence, it is the effect upon foreign markets which will undoubt- 

 edly receive the greatest attention from our manufacturers. The 

 average manufacturer or exporter is inclined to look upon for- 

 eign trade as a matter of orders and delivery. The great eco- 

 nomic factors operating in the world's markets do not apparently 

 concern him and he does not trouble about the development of 

 fa,vorable trade prospects. This policy has been especially 

 noticeable in our own country. It has marred for a long time 

 our politically and economically desirable trade relations with 

 South America and it is again interfering very seriously in our 

 relationship to our former allies in Europe. It is, however, the 

 comprehensive understanding of the present and future require- 

 ments of a market which develops the successful exporter. Only 

 the manufacturer who makes himself useful to his customer 

 can expect to acquire his permanent confidence. It is, therefore, 

 necessary that American rubber manufacturers should be con- 

 versant with the economic tendencies underlying the develop- 

 ment of markets for .American rubber goods. 

 OUR PAST PROVINCIALISM. 

 The -\merican rubber industry can easily be called the most 

 powerful and progressive of the rubber industries of the world. 

 No country has provided during peace times so many difficult 

 problems for the rubber chemist and engineer than our own and 

 it is only our somewhat provincial, habits which have prevented 

 the. American rubber industry from ta(king first place as an ex- 

 porting industry in the years before the war. Matte-s have now 

 changed. We have been forced to take a hand in international 



affairs and the rul)l)er industry was burdened with an unusual 

 load of foreign orders which cost a great deal of exertion to fill. 

 In the future we shall receive automatically a share of the ex- 

 port business of the world and this will be measured more or 

 less by the general ability of our industry to supply the demand. 

 This share in foreign trade flows as a natural result of interna- 

 tional trade exchange to any leading industry of any country. 

 It is the tribute due to the existence of a powerful economic 

 producer. The successful exporter, however, cannot wait to let 

 others determine his share of the business of the world, and by 

 making use of the existing opportunities obtains a larger propor- 

 tion of the trade. And such opportunities are now especially 

 numerous. They have arisen as the result of the war. 

 RUBBER IN DRY COURSING. 

 It is not always easy to recognize favorable market develop- 

 ments in their early stages. Often we cannot determine with cer- 

 tainty what particular consequences will follow a certain event. 

 But there are at present many so-called fundamental economic 

 causes which must lead to an extensive business for the rubber in- 

 dustry of the world. Only a few can be mentioned in the space of a 

 short article. There is a considerable shortage of houses in Eng- 

 land, and in fact, all over the world. It is estimated that England 

 will have to build 500,000 dwellings within a few years. France 

 may require even more. .\nd w^e can estimate conservatively that 

 several million houses will be erected all over Europe in the near 

 future. All these houses require dry coursing and waterproof 

 roofing. This question of dry coursing is still in its initial 

 stages. In England slate is frequently used for the purpose. 

 But the old houses in Europe were often entirely without dry 

 courses, resulting in damage to the masonry caused by the infil- 

 tration of water. Shortly before the war a proposition was 

 made to use rubber for this purpose. The advantages of rubber 

 sheets laid along the fundaments were obvious. Rubber is 

 absolutely damp proof, it would stretch in case the fundaments 

 settled and will not break like slate, and, moreover, the cost 

 was not materially higher. The building of a large number 

 of houses offers the rubber industry an opportunity to manu- 

 facture dry course material. Large strips of rubber, 1 to 2 feet 

 wide and Vi or 34-inch in thickness, are required. Figuring 

 at the basis of 30 yards of material for each house, the very 

 small English workmen dwelling being considered, the English 

 consumption of that kind of dry course sheeting would amount 

 to 15 million yards alone, not to speak of the large demand 

 which might be developed on the European continent. Some 

 ad\ertising would be of course required to acquaint the build- 



