METEOROLOGY. 283 



ing towards tlie observer's station, and lie may expect its greatest se- 

 verity. 



3. If the barometer is stationary the cyclone is moving towards the 

 observer, but its greatest severity will not reach him. 



4. Ordinarily we observe high cirrus clouds when the cyclone is still 

 GOO miles distant; these stretch out towards a definite point in the hor- 

 izon and form cirrus strata that converge towards this point. If, now, 

 we observe at equal intervals of time the direction of the vanishing 

 point of the cirri and the height of the barometer, we may avail our- 

 selves of the following rules: If the vanishing point is in the second 

 quadrant and quite stationary, the cyclone is moving towards the ob- 

 server, and we can estimate the i)robable severity of the storm by attend- 

 ing to the barometer in connection with the above three rules. If the 

 vanishing point changes its position, the observer is outside of the trajec- 

 tory of the storm ; if it moves towards the south and east or towards 

 the northeast and north, then the storm will pass by the observer on the 

 south or the north side, respectively. [Z. 0. G. M., xviii, p. 230.) 



100. Mr. Herve Mangon, of Pnris, president of the committee of the 

 French Central Meteorological Duroau, reports that 83 i)er cent, of the 

 predictions published by that bureau have been acknowledged good, and 

 that of the storm warnings 5L per cent, were wholly verified, 33 partly 

 verified, and 21 failed. {Nature, xxvii, p. 539.) 



101. Dr. J. Lugli has compared the weather predictions made at the 

 Central Office at Kome witli the resulting weather very much after the 

 maiiner adopted by the Signal Office, and gives the following percent- 

 ages of verification for the three years 1880, 1881, 1882 : For cloudiness, 

 84 per cent. ; the condition of the sea, 78 per cent. ; direction and force 

 of the wind, 74 i)er cent. ; thunder-storms, (](>])er cent.; temperature, 68 

 per cent.; general weather, 72 percent.; storm signals, 74 per cent. {Z. 

 O. 6. M., XIX, p. 403.) 



102. Dr. B. Overzier, of Cologne, having undertaken to publish 

 weather predictions lor each day one month in advance, these have 

 been examined and verified by Dr. Assmann, by comparison with actual 

 experience. In general. Dr. Assmann allows him 18 per cent, of verifi- 

 cations as to the velocity of the wind, 40 per cent, for cloudiness, 26 

 per cent, lor rain, 24 per cent, for temperature, and 23 for thunder- 

 storms. 



103. [It would seem that Germany is troubled like America, where 

 Vennor and Wiggins have for a long time vexed the public. The real 

 remedy evidently consists in a better education of the public. When 

 every person comes to understand that weather predictions do not de- 

 pend upon astronomical confignrations, but upon the solution of com- 

 plicated problems, in which the topography and rotation of the earth, 

 the moisture in the air, and the solar heat are the i)rincipal factors, they 

 will, it is to be hoped, have leurned to distinguish between the true 

 meteorologists and llic ordinaiy weather proi)het of the ;'.lnianac, even 



