124 RECENT AEKONAUTICAL PROGRESS. 



particular oroovo, making- steady progress in hiiilding up their portion 

 of the foundation of tliat great structure which we all hope to see rise 

 up in the future. 



But to return to the question of the recent progress in aerial navi- 

 gation, I will now endeavor to point out and explain the present posi- 

 tion we hold, and by considering the state of the subject as it at 

 present exists to judge whether or not there is any real prol)al)ility of 

 our attaining that great goal which most of us look forward to. 



Though it is impro])able there are many here present to-night who 

 do not look forward with feelings of confidence that artificial flight 

 will some day be accomplished, yet there are still some few skeptics 

 (most, if not all, of whom have never looked deeply into the subject) 

 who ])elieve it inipossil)le. For this reason it may not perhaps be out 

 of place in such an address as this to point out our reasons for main- 

 taining this belief. 



The first great argument in favor of it is that ])irds fly. If we had 

 never seen such a thing as a bird, many of us might reasonably argue 

 the thing to be impossible. But there they are. Not only can they 

 rise in the air, not only prog-ress at a very rapid rate through it, but 

 they can continue the movement for long" periods and in almost any 

 weather. It is quite certain now that birds do not possess any very 

 extraordinary power; ))at if they did we could probably ''go one 

 better'' with the modern very compact and light oil engines. We have 

 now compressed the strength of a horse into a little motor weighing 

 no more than a large bird. There is the ])ower. Can it be ai)i)lie(l^ 

 Manv people have argued that the flight of a bird is dependent on 

 some valvular action of its feathers. Let it l)e so; but how do you 

 account for the flight of the bat and of the flying fox^ Others have 

 thought that flight is only possible up to a certain weight, maintaining 

 that the ostrich and the emu are beyond that limit. But geologists 

 will point you out the fossil remains of a huge reptile which they 

 declare flew in the air and weighed fai- more. 



l^ut, leaving nature, we may consider what has been done by man to 

 justify our hop(\s. 



Thougli 1 believe it may be said that nearly all the authorities on 

 the subject are now of opinion that the balloon can not be considered 

 as much more than an aid — to act as a step])ing stone — to true flight, 

 3^et there are many workers who consider that \ cry nuu-h may b(^ 

 accomplished by propelled balloons. Souk^ authorities hav(^ calculated 

 that a speed of 44 miles an hour might ])o practically attain(Kl, but not 

 more. 



M. Santos Dumont and others have shown us what can })e done with 

 a little cigar-shaped balloon. Th(\v have clearly demonstrated the 

 difficulties to l)e overcome. It is very palpable that the sui'face of 

 such a balloon nuist l»e still and rigid. Once it gets flal)l)v it can not 



