THE DISC()VP]KY OF THE FUTURE. 885 



And if 1 iiiii i'i<^ht in .sining- that .science aims at prophecy, and if the 

 specialist in each science is in fact doing" his ]>est now to prophesy 

 within the limits of his field, wliat is there to stand in the way of our 

 building- up this u-rowing hody of forecast into an ordered picture of 

 the future that will be just as certain, just as strictly science, and per- 

 haps just as detailed as the })icture that has been built up within the last 

 hundred years to make the geological past ^ Well, so far and until 

 we bring the prophecy down to the affairs of )nan and his children, it 

 is just as possil)le to carry induction forward as back; it is just as sim- 

 ple and sure to work out the changing orbit of the earth in the future 

 until the tidal drag hauls one unchanging face at last toward the sun 

 as it is to work ])ack to its blazing and molten })ast. Tntil man comes 

 in, the inductive future is :is real and convincing as the inducti\ e past. 

 But inorganic forces are the smaller part and the minor interest in 

 this concern. Directly man becomes a factor the nature of the prob- 

 lem changes, and our whole present interest centers on the ({uestion 

 whether man is, indeed, individually and collectively incalculable, a 

 new element which entircdy alters the nature of our iiKpiiry and stamps 

 it at once as vain and hopeless, or whether his presence complicates, 

 but does not alter, the essential nature of the induction. How far may 

 we hope to get trustworthy inductions al)out the future of man^ 



Well, I think, on the whole, we are inclined to underrate our chance 

 of certainties in the future, just as I think we are inclined to be too 

 credulous about the historical past. The vividness of our personal 

 memories, which are the very essence of reality to us, throws a glamor 

 of conviction over tradition jind past inductions. But the personal 

 future nuist in the very nature of things be hidden from us so long" as 

 time endures, and this black ignorance at our very feet — this black 

 shadow that corresponds to the l)rightness of our memori«>s b«diind us — 

 throws a glamor of uncertainty and unreality over all the future. 

 We are continually surprising" ourselves by our own will or want of 

 will; the individualities abt)ut us are continually producing the unex- 

 pected, and it is very natural to reason that as we can never be pre- 

 cisely sure before the time comes what we are g^oing to do and feel, 

 and if we can never count with absolute certainty upon the acts and 

 happenings e\'en of our most intimate friends, how nuich the more 

 impossible is it to anticipate the behavior in any direction of states 

 and connnunities;' 



In reply to which I would advance the suggestion that an increase 

 in the number of human l)eings considered may positively simplify 

 the case instead of complicating it; that as the individuals increase in 

 number they begin to average out. Let me illustrate this point b}^ a 

 comparison. Angular pit sand has grains of the most varied shapes. 

 Examined microscopically, 3^ou will find all sorts of angles and out- 

 lines and variations. Before you look you can say of no particular 

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