INQUIRY INTO THE POPULATION OF CHINA. 



673 



III. 



Let us revert now to, the figures oiven l)y tlie Chinese Governnieiit 

 for the poi)uhition at the various periods since 1741 and see whether 

 the annual rates of increase are at all reasonable. This examination 

 is distinctly disappointing; nothing less satisfactory could be con- 

 ceived. Between 174H and 1783 — during which time China enjoyed 

 extraordinary peace and ]3rosperity, disturbed only by some uprisings 

 of aboi'iginal tribes in the mountainous regions of the west, and two 

 small rebellions, one in Shan-tung in 1777, the other in Shen-hsi in 

 1781 — no great famines or other natural calamities are- recorded. 

 Nevertheless, the annual rate of increase of the population (the 

 enumerations being all presumabl}' made in the same manner, with 

 the same classes excepted), which between 17-13 and 1740 was 2.90 

 per cent, fell from 1749 to 1757 to 0.91 per cent, to rise between 1757 

 to 1701 to 1.37 per cent, falling again to 0.73 per cent between 1761 

 and 1707, and to 0.57 per cent from that date to 1771. The next 

 change is phenomenal: Between 1771 and 1770 it was 5 per cent, but 

 iimnediately after, between 1770 and 1780 it fell, without any known 

 reason, to 0.80 per cent, to rise again between that date and 1783 to 

 2.34 per cent. The average annual rate of increase during the whole 

 period was 1.83 per cent. In fFapan, where much more favorable 

 conditions exist than in China, the average yearly increase of the 

 ])opulation from 1872 to 1899 has been only 1.04 per cent. 



If we accept the figure given for the population in 1741 (143,412,- 

 000) as being closer the truth than subsequent ones, and bearing in 

 mind the reasons given previously for and against a rapid increase of 

 population, we may assume that the population of China proper 

 barely doubled in the hundred j^ears following; consequently in 1842^ 

 instead of being, as given in the official enumeration, 413,000,000, it 

 was probably about 250,000,000. 



Referring now to the extraordinary causes of mortality from 1842 

 down to the present day, some of which are mentioned on preceding 

 pages, they may be tabulated as foUoAvs: 



Years. 



Famine _ 1846 



Do_ - 1849 



Tai-Ping rebellion ' 1854H864 



Mohammedan rebellions .__ .- 1861-1878 



Famine ] 1877-1878 



Yellow River inundation — j 1888 



Famine - - -- ---- 1892-1894 



Mohammedan rebellion 1894-1895 



Total loss of ad ults _ ! 



Resulting 



lossof poiJU- 



lation. 



325,000 



13,750,000 



30,CX)0,«)0 



1,{XX),(KX) 



9,500,000 



2,000,000 



(?) 1, OK), 000 



235, (KX) 



47,700,000 



SM 1904- 



