674 INQUIRY INTO THE POPULATION OF CHINA, 



We are therefore led to the inevitable conclusion that the present 

 population of China proper can not greatly exceed that of 1842, a 

 conclusion reached by another line of argument in 1881 ))y my friend 

 A. E. HijDpisley, in his too brief study above referred to, and by Mr. 

 Popoff in 1884. 



The following considerations tend to strengthen this opinion : The 

 most recent enumeration of the population of China which can lay 

 claim to any value is that of 1885. In it we find that the returns 

 given for six provinces (Chi-Li, Anhoui, Kan-Soo, Kuang-hsi, Yiin- 

 nan, and Kuei-Chu) are the same as those given in the earlier census 

 of 1882, but which in this latter were in reality for the year 1879. A 

 comparison of the official estimates for these provinces, with the esti- 

 mates made l)y careful foreign investigators is highly interesting. 



In the case of the province of Ssu-ch'uan, which the board of reve- 

 nue estimated at 71,073,730 in 1885, all foreign writers agree that it 

 is quite impossible to believe tha^t any such population exists or can 

 exist in it. Its western, northwestern, and southwestern parts are 

 extremely mountainous and A^ery sparsely inhabited. Furthermore, 

 the province contains no extremely populous cities. Ch'eng-tu, the 

 capital, has about 350,000, and Ch'ung-k'ing about 130,000. 



The Lyons Commercial Mission, speaking of the year 1895-5)(), 

 states its belief that the estimates of the maritime customs at Ch'ung- 

 k'ing for 1891 of 30,000,000 to 35,000,000 for the province of Ssu- 

 ch'uan is too low, but accepts that of from 40,000,000 to 45,000,000." 

 (jr. J. L. Litton, writing in 1898, estimated the population of Ssii- 

 ch'uan at more than double that given in the enumeration of 1812, 

 and put it at 43,000,000.'^ F. S. A. Bourne, also writing in 1898, says 

 that the population of Ssu-ch'uan is j^robably between 45,000,000 and 

 55,000,000. In a report in 1904 Hosie gives it as 45,000.000.- 



Kiang-hsi, for which the official returns give a population of more 

 than 24,000,000, is believed by W. J. Clennell, wi'iting in 1903, to 

 have less than 12,000,000.'' The same writer estimates the j)opula- 

 of Fu-kien in 1903 at "certainly under 10,000,000,'^ whereas the 

 Chinese figure for 1885 is 23,502,794. As regards Yihmnan, the 

 Lyons Mission "■ puts the population in 1890 at from 7,000,000 to 

 8,000,000. F. S. A. Bourne, writing of Yiin-nan in 189(), says that 

 •' according to the best native authority the population is estimated at 

 one-fifth of what it was before the (Mohammedan) rebellion,"^ 



a Mission Lyonnaise d'explor.-coinmer. en Chine, ISO.j-lSOT, part ii, p. 2."2. 

 6 Brit. Cons. Reports, No. 457, Misc. series. 



c Brit. Cons. Reports, No. 458, Mise. series, p. 40. Blue Booli ; t'liina, No. 5 

 (1904). p. 4. 

 dBrit. Pari. Blue Book; China, No. 1. VM)X 

 « Op. cit., part ii, p. 129. 

 f Rep. Blacliburn Chaml)er Connnerce. p. 91. 



