INQUIRY INTO THE POPULATION OF CHINA, OTf) 



while Litton, in VM\, thought it was '"not over 1(),0()(),00();' " The 

 Chinese estimate of the popuhition of this province in 187*,) (the same 

 hgure is given for 1885) was 11, 7*2 1,57*), but only two years before 

 that, in 1877, (General Mesney ^ placed it at o.OOO.OOO. 



Knei-chou in or al)Out 180() was thought to have about 7,000,000 

 inhabitants,'' in this agreeing with the Chinese estimate. 



AVithout going any fui"ther we see that for the five provinces above 

 mentioned foreign investigators sul)stantially agree that the Chinese 

 estimates are too large by some 5<),000,000. All the Chinese figures 

 are onedialf to one-third too high. I have not the least doubt that 

 the same reduction must apply to the estiuuites for most of the other 

 j)rovinces, the errc^r in excess increasing presunudjly with the density 

 of the population. The conviction is therefore forced on me that the 

 ])resent ])opulation of China pro})er does not exceed 275,000,000, and 

 is probably consideraldy under this figure. 



The population of China is most uneveidy distril)uted. In cer- 

 tain sections, for example, around Swatow. and in portions of ITo-nan, 

 Shan-tung, and Chih-li, it is extraordinarily dense, while in othei-s, 

 as Kan-su, Yiin-nan. Kuei-chou. and Kuang-hsi, it is surprisingly 

 sparse, (luesses of the population based on partial returns from some 

 densely po])ulated center would give a most erroneous idea of the 

 l)opulation not only of the ])rovince as a whole, but of even a smaller 

 tlivision of the country. I have traversed several times all the north- 

 ern ])rovinces of Cliina — Chih-li, Shan-hsi, hhen-hsi, and Kan-su — 

 and can voucli for the fact that in none of them does the population 

 ajjpear to exceed in numbers what the soil can easily su])port. lh(> 

 absence of easy lines of connnunication over which surplus produce 

 can be readily exported, and the fact that the Chinese do not raise 

 cattle or any domestic animals in considerable numbers, tend to re- 

 strict the areas cultivated by the farmer. It seems certain that China 

 rould suppoi't a much larger ])opulation than it now has — a condition 

 whicli could not exist if llie ])opulation had reached the enormous 

 figure which imaginative writers give us. T am confirmed in this 

 opinifm by such a careful observer as F. S. A. Bourne, who, referring 

 to the journey of the Blackburn Chamber of Conuiierce mission,'' 

 which traversed the whole Yang-tzu Valley and southwestern China, 

 says: "From what we ha\e seen on this joui'ney 1 should say that 

 China could support twice her ])resent population, and that each nuui 



"Brit. Pari. Blue Book; Cliiiin, No. :?. V.)()P,. 



'' .Tourn. Ch. I>r. Roy. .\siiit. Soc. XXV. |). 4S.'*.. 



^ INIission Lyons., part i\. p. liUT. 



<* Rep. of mission to China of P>lacl\hnrn ("h.inihcr of ( "onmicrco, 1S1)C>-<.I7, [). 111. 



