144 ANNUAL REPORT SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION, 1936 



of stocks and bonds, but of staple commodities. Those who bear the 

 brunt of furnishing advice to investors and wholesalers have been 

 enthusiastic in their search for such a correlation between solar activ- 

 ity and terrestrial activity. Needless to say, they have found evidence 

 of such a correlation. As the number of sunspots mounts, prosperity 

 turns the corner; as the number of sunspots diminishes, prosperity 

 hides itself in a depression. It may be pointed out that the last 

 sunspot maximum occurred in 1928, an epoch in the economic history 

 of the United States to which one commonly refers as "the good old 

 days." The last sunspot minimum occurred in 1933. Someone has 

 mentioned an economic depression similarly dated. It is now said that 

 conditions are improving and that prosperity is again just around the 

 corner; sunspots are improving in number as well. The correlation 

 seems amazingly satisfactory, and its amazing properties are en- 

 hanced by the fact that it holds equally good over nearly the past two 

 centuries. If you have faith in this relationship, you may heed tlie 

 advice of the lyrics which runs, "Now's the time to buy, so let's have 

 another cup of coffee and let's have another piece of pie." Whether 

 the lyrical prediction applies also to other fields is left to your own 

 judgment. It would at least seem that all the king's horses and all 

 the king's men cannot bring prosperity back again ; but the sun can. 



It may justifiably be said that the terrestrial influences of ultra- 

 violet radiation may be expected at times to be immediate, at other 

 times, cumulative. This is shown by the coincidence or lag of the ter- 

 restrial curve with respect to the sunspot curve in the accompanying 

 diagram. 



The present waxing of sunspots should come to an end in 1939. 

 Concerning some of the concomitant effects we are certain. Concern- 

 ing the remaining effects your prediction of their trend is as satis- 

 factory as mine. I have laid them before you, here and there in 

 serious fashion, elsewhere with a touch of cynicism. To you is left 

 the final judgment as to when this cynicism is justified. 



