546 ANNUAL REPORT SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION, 1962 



date back as much as 2 million years. However, this time-scale has 

 not yet been accepted by all anthropologists. 



If the "beginning" actually extended a million years prior to 

 600,000 B.C., the estimated number of births prior to 6000 B.C. would 

 be 32 billion, and the estimated total number, about 96 billion. 



Prior to 1650, historical population data are very scanty for every 

 part of the world. Despite this lack of knowledge, ancillary evi- 

 dence exists which reveals the general pattern of human growth. 

 Throughout the thousands of centuries which preceded the present 

 teclinological age, human survival was such a touch-and-go affair 

 that high fertility was essential to balance brutally high mortality. 

 The hmnan female — a relatively slow breeder, even among mammals — 

 had to reproduce somewhere near her physiological limit in order for 

 the family, the clan, the tribe, and the nation to survive. 



As human culture developed over the ages, the chances of survival 

 tended to improve. When the invention of agriculture provided a 

 more stable food supply, the base was laid for the maintenance of 

 large populations and for their spread into new areas. However, high 

 death rates continued to check population growth. 



Until recently, at least a half of all babies born died before reaching 

 maturity. Man's quest for some formula to avert death included 

 magic, incanations, and prayers, but none of these had shown any 

 efficacy against the major killers. Then, with the advance of modem 

 science, the mortality pattern of a million years was broken. 



Jenner's dramatic discovery of vaccination for smallpox was the 

 first of a multitude of discoveries destined to defer death, especially 

 in infancy and childhood. This brilliant application of the scientific 

 method to biology and medicine, together with improved agricultural 

 technology, better transportation, and the vast and complex nexus of 

 an emerging industrial culture, set in motion forces which drastically 

 lowered death rates and thereby greatly increased the efficiency of 

 reproduction. In some countries, the birth rate declined also, al- 

 though more slowly than the death rate. During the 19th century, 

 the industrial countries of the West were the first to experience the 

 transition from high to low birth and death rates. This transition 

 took about 150 years. 



These epochal changes profoundly altered the patterns of survival 

 and population growth. In those countries of northern Europe and 

 North America which were the first to exploit effectively the new 

 medical discoveries, life expectancy at birth rose rapidly from 30 

 years to 40, then to 50, and, by 1960, to 70 years and more. Infant 

 mortality declined drastically : now, 95 out of every 100 babies bom 

 in Western industrial countries live to reach adulthood. 



Although the power to defer death is one of the greatest advances 

 in man's long history, it has been the principal factor in the accelera- 



