HOW MANY PEOPLE ON EARTH? — DESMOND 



553 



has traced the population changes within the Roman Empire from the 

 second century A.D. to the year A.D. 543, a period he characterizes 

 generally as one of imperial decline: 



. • . However, within the general picture there are great differences in the 

 trends. Actually most of the decrease occurred in western Mediterranean lands : 

 Italy, Gaul, Iberia, and North Africa, together with Greece and Egypt. In Syria 

 the population seems to have held even while in Gaul and Britain something 

 like recovery must have occurred at the end of the period. Eastern Asia Minor 

 and the Slavic area probably increased markedly. The German and Scandi- 

 navian spheres apparently held even in spite of emigration. The information 

 about the central, eastern, and northern parts of Europe is so vague and uncertain 

 that there may have been a considerable increase in population. The general rise 

 in temperature should certainly have reduced the semiglacial conditions of the 

 northern countries and made them attractive for grain-growing groups. 



In the second and third centuries A.D., Rome suffered two dev- 

 astating epidemics which have not been identified but their virulence 

 suggests bubonic plague. According to Dr. Russell : 



The period from A.D. 543 to 950 probably marks the lowest ebb of population 

 in Europe since the early Roman Empire. It covers the first great attack of the 

 plague, the worst epidemic to strike the area with which we are concerned. 

 Following it came the Mohammedan invasions from the semi-nomadic areas of 

 the lands surrounding the Mediterranean. From the east in the tenth century 

 the Hungarians scourged most of Europe and what they missed was visited by the 

 terrible raids of the Vikings from the north. Some measure of the weakness of 

 the European population is indicated by the feeble defense put up against these 

 invaders by the governments of Europe. . . . 



Endemic diseases such as malaria and tuberculosis were prevalent, 

 and the latter was particularly fatal among young people. In fact, 

 the combination of both diseases occurred quite frequently and was 

 highly fatal. Dr. Russell speculates that during the periods of pop- 

 ulation decline in early medieval Europe, much carefully tilled and 

 drained acreage lapsed into breeding grounds for mosquitoes ; and that 

 a period of wet, warm weather about 800-900 A.D. greatly increased 

 the incidence of malaria. 



The span of life (extreme length of life) seems to have been around 

 100 years, as it is now. Those who could avoid infection were likely to 



Table 1. — Area and estimates of population of the Roman Empire, A.D. 14 



Area (thousands 

 of sq. mi.) 



Population 

 (thousands) 



Persons per 

 sq. ml. 



Total empire.. 

 European part 



Asiatic part 



African part-.. 



1,289 

 861 

 257 

 171 



54, 000 

 23, 000 

 19, 500 

 11, 500 



41 

 26 



77 

 67 



5; Source: Reference No. 14 at end of article. 



