560 ANNUAL REPORT SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION, 1962 



Sweden in 1748 and Denmark in 1769. The United States took its 

 first national census in 1790. Great Britain took its first in 1801. 



The first estimate of world population ever to be compiled was pub- 

 lished in the 17th century by a Jesuit priest named Kiccioli who esti- 

 mated that 1 billion people then inhabited the earth: 100 million in 

 Europe, 500 million in Asia, 100 million in Africa, 200 million in 

 America, and 100 million in Oceania. It appears that Riccioli re- 

 ported the conjectures of others rather than his own. Other contem- 

 porary estimates of the 17th century all range below Eiccioli's — one 

 as low as 320 million. 



G. King, a 17th-century English scholar, estimating population 

 densities for the various continents, allocated 17 acres per head for 

 Europe, 20 for Asia, 64 for Africa, and 129 for America. This yielded 

 a total of 700 million for the world, or 600 million, rejecting a hypo- 

 thetical southern continent. If correct land areas as now known are 

 substituted, the estimate would be 874 million. It should be noted 

 that this estimate is two-thirds higher than the estimate of approxi- 

 mately 500 million accepted by modern scholars. 



Even though Asia's population continued to increase during the 

 period, its proportion of world population declined from about 58 

 percent in 1650 to 53 percent in 1920 (excluding the Asiatic part of the 

 U.S.S.E.). Africa's proportion also declined, from 20 percent to 8 

 percent. But the proportion for Europe, including all of the 

 U.S.S.R., rose from 20 percent to 27 percent. Since 1920, the propor- 

 tion for Asia and Africa has again increased, while that for Europe 

 has declined. 



Today, the combined population of the Americas is about 400 mil- 

 lion. Their proportion of world population increased from approxi- 

 mately 2 percent in 1650 to 14 percent at the present time. As 

 previously mentioned, the indigenous American populations were 

 heavily decimated by diseases brought in by Europeans and by wars 

 with early colonizers. Much of the subsequent increase was due to 

 immigration and to the proliferation of the immigrant groups. More 

 recently, the descendants of the indigenous Americans have been 

 increasing rapidly. 



THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION OF PERIOD HI 



Application of the scientific method to medical technology brought 

 man the ability to defer death. In the Western industrial countries, 

 this has changed his pattern of survival far more rapidly than any 

 other major social development throughout his long history. Simi- 

 larly, in the Western world, knowledge about the control of fertility 

 is widespread. As the traditional pattern of high birth and death 

 rates changed to one of low birth and death rates, man's reproductive 

 process has become much more efficient. 



