HOW MANY PEOPLE ON EARTH? — DESMOND 



563 



to disseminate what knowledge is now available to all the world's 

 people who would benefit from that knowledge. Consequently, dur- 

 ing the past decade of rapid death-rate decline in the less developed 

 countries, there has been no measurable reduction in high birth rates; 

 so population growth has increased. 



Rapid population growth cannot be maintained indefinitely in any 

 part of the world. If birth rates do not decline in overcrowded lands, 

 death rates eventually will rise to check growth. 



The gulf which exists today between the peoples of the world has 

 widened : life is better than ever before for those who live in the West- 

 em industrial countries. But the majority of the world's people 

 still live close to the subsistence level, in poverty and squalor remi- 

 niscent of the Middle Ages. If the demographic transition to a 

 balance between low birth and death rates could be hastened in the 

 less developed countries, this gulf might yet be bridged in time to 

 avert a Malthusian disaster. 



APPENDIX 



The statistical and general demographic assumptions used to deter- 

 mine the number of people who have ever been born were provided 

 the Population Reference Bureau by J. Fletcher Wellemeyer, an inde- 

 pendent manpower consultant, Washington, D.C., in consultation with 

 Franlv Lorimer, American University, Washington, D.C. 



The estimate was made on the basis of three time periods : 



To obtain the number of births at the beginning and end of these 

 periods, certain assumptions were made regarding birth rates and the 

 size of populations. It was assumed that at the beginning of the 

 Neolithic era the population was 5 million and that the annual birth 

 rate was 50 per thousand. The procedure assumes a smooth increase. 

 Tlie growth was undoubtedly irregular, but the estimates may fairly 

 represent the net effect of the ups and downs. 



By 1650 the annual number of births was estimated at 25 million, 

 corresponding to a population of about 500 million. The 1962 world 

 population of 3,05 billion, the number of births and birth rate of 36 

 per thousand are based on United Nations estimates. 



