FUTURE OF MAN — MATHER 223 



after, except for possible influx of immigrants from other countries, 

 no further increase in numbers is to be expected. 



Accurate figures are available for only a few other countries, such 

 as England, France, and Germany, but there is a strong probability 

 that the all-time maximum for the white races will be reached dur- 

 ing the last third of the twentieth century and for the entire popu- 

 lation of the earth before the end of the twenty-first century. 

 Although the human family has doubled its numbers since 1860, 

 it is extremely unlikely that it will ever reach twice its present number 

 of approximately 2 billion. The pressure of demand for nonrenewable 

 resources will not, therefore, become acute because of the increase 

 in population in the near future. Mother Earth is a very wealthy 

 benefactress, and our heritage of physical resources is far greater 

 than ordinarily supposed. 



There is, however, another reason why current consumption of 

 nonrenewable resources cannot be taken as the basis for computing 

 the "life" of such stores of basic materials. The demand for auto- 

 mobiles, telephones, radios, airplanes, and zippers, is today very un- 

 evenly distributed. Only a small fraction of the human population 

 uses such things in any large amount. Other peoples are beginning 

 to demand them and will do so increasingly as they become acquainted 

 with the "benefits of civilization." In a few decades, unless we 

 return to savagery, the world demand for many nonrenewable re- 

 sources will be twice or thrice that of today. 



Taking all these things into consideration, it would appear that 

 world stores of needed natural resources are adequate to supply a 

 basis for the comfortable existence of every human being who is likely 

 to dwell anywhere on the face of the earth for something like a 

 thousand years to come. 



Even so, there may be found here an excuse for the policy of 

 "grabbing while the grabbing is good" which motivates many indi- 

 viduals and nations at the present time. That excuse might, of course, 

 be offset by the suggestion that there is no need to take thought for a 

 morrow a thousand years hence, if we have any respect for the 

 ingenuity of our remote offspring. There is, how^ever, another phase 

 of current trends in human history that should not be overlooked 

 in this connection. 



One hundred years ago, something like 80 percent of all the things 

 man used had their source on farms; most of the energy used to do 

 the work of the world came from the muscles of living beings and 

 from falling water. Today only about 30 percent of the things 

 man uses come from things that grow ; most of the energy with which 

 work is done comes from petroleum and coal. For a century or more, 

 the policy has been to use relatively less of the annual income and 

 more of the stored capital. 



