THE SEARCH FOR OIL — LEES 247 



geophysical survej^s followed and the exploration drilling stage is 

 now commencing. Up to the beginning of this year about li^ 

 million pounds is reported to have been spent on this concession. 

 A number of oil indications are known in Papua and New Guinea 

 and led to an investigation and exploration drilling program in 

 the war years of 1914r-18 and subsequently. The results, however, 

 were uniformly disappointing, partly owing to technical and drilling 

 difficulties, and no work was carried out for a number of years. Fol- 

 lowing recent changes in petroleum legislation on the part of the 

 Australian Government, a fresh attack on the possibilities has 

 recently been commenced and considerable concessions have been 

 acquired by American, British, and Australian companies. I have 

 already mentioned that the Shell Company have abandoned their 

 interest in another area in Papua, after surveys involving an ex- 

 penditure of over £400,000 had been carried out. The other con- 

 cessions are now being actively explored and the drilling phase will 

 soon be reached. 



JAPAN 



Japan, including Taiwan, produced 344,000 tons of oil in 1938. For 

 national reasons of self-sufficiency Japan has been making strenuous 

 efforts to increase her indigenous production for many years, but 

 new discoveries and deeper oil horizons in existing fields have not 

 done much more than offset the decline of the older fields. In 1937 

 a well was drilled to a depth of 11,502 feet at Kinsin in Taiwan, and 

 several oil sands are recorded below 10,000 feet. 



CONCLUSION 



In the foregoing pages I have attempted to analyze the underlying 

 factors governing the present-day search for additional oil reserves 

 throughout the world, and particularly in Asia. The United States 

 has supplied 64 percent of the total oil production of the world up 

 to date and is still producing 61 percent. She has at present a poten- 

 tial output considerably in excess of market demand, and restrictions 

 on production have been imposed in most of the individual States. 

 It is expected, however, that this is a passing phase as, with more 

 and more fields falling into decline, more and more new discoveries 

 are required to offset this cumulative factor, and it is unlikely that 

 the discovery rate of the past two decades will be repeated. The 

 proved reserves of the United States have been estimated at 12 years' 

 supply at the present rate, but new discoveries can b^ expected to 

 extend this to 20 or 30 years, or perhaps even longer. A decline in 

 total production from the great oil fields of the States is however in 

 sight within a measurable number of years, and a realization of this 



