1909] on Afforestation. 639 



seventeen and a half millions a year which, if the forests are properly 

 cared for, each breadth being replanted as it is cut over, should go 

 on for ever. Now this seventeen and a half millions represents 

 3f per cent, on the net cost calculated at accumulated compound 

 interest of 3 per cent. — compound interest, I beg you to observe. 

 Therefore, on this basis, plus the other advantages that have been 

 touched on, the State putting money into afforestation would make 

 almost a 4-per-cent. investment, a rate of interest with which 

 business corporations are generally satisfied. 



Or, we may look at the results in another way. At the eightieth 

 year the State forests would be worth a capital sum of five hundred 

 and sixty-two millions, that is, about one hundred and seven millions 

 above the total cost involved in their creation — again calculated at 

 3 per cent, compound interest. Some of you may think these 

 returns visionary ; I can assure you, however, that to the best of 

 our belief they are nothing of the sort. Every expense has been 

 considered and allowed for, and every figure checked and re-checked 

 by comi)etent actuaries who enjoy the confidence of the Government 

 offices. Moreover, there is another point to which I must call your 

 attention. This ultimate profit is calculated on the assumption 

 that timber will remain at its present price, which, I should add, is 

 already a good deal higher for most kinds than it was a few years 

 ago. But the evidence to which we listened, I think without excep- 

 tion, all went to show that there is the strongest probability, I might 

 almost say the absolute certainty, that the woods most extensively used 

 in commerce, such as those of the Conifer^e, must grow very largely 

 in value during the next half century. How can it be otherwise, 

 indeed, when the world's supply is being so ruthlessly destroyed, and 

 comparatively speaking, so little is being planted ? If you have any 

 doubt upon this matter, I beg you to consult the official returns which 

 have recently been published in America, where the rapid wastage of 

 the timber resources of the country is viewed with great alarm by 

 exj)erts and all thinking men. True, certain countries have faced the 

 situation and begun to re-afforest extensively, and others, including 

 America, may do so in the future. But we are assured and believe that 

 nothing which is at all likely to be done at this late hour will appreciably 

 affect the almost inevitable rise in prices, as the woods which Nature 

 planted progressively disappear beneath the blows of the axe and before 

 the breath of fire. In short, it appears certain that commercial 

 timber will rise in price, unless the world lessens its timber con- 

 sumption, and this seems extremely improbable, inasmuch as owing 

 to this cause or to that, and notwithstanding the ever-increasing use 

 of iron and concrete, the consumption develops from year to year. 

 Therefore our estimates of future profit from State-conducted forests 

 based upon present prices, appear to be very moderate. At any rate 

 it would be fair to set this most t probable but uncalculated profit 

 against anv possible loss that may have escaped our foresight, such 



