real numbers to provide real estimates of 

 economic and biological effects. 



There is equally urgent need for a quantified 

 model that can be manipulated in terms of 

 multiple objectives: economic efficiency, income 

 distribution, structural unemployment, and per- 

 haps others. The modeling technique lends itself 

 well to assessment of a range of management 

 measures that might be undertaken to achieve 

 multiple objectives, or to maximize certain ele- 

 ments subject to constrained values for others. 



There are both biological and economic I'easons 

 for development of a more sophisticated model 

 than the long term equilibrium constructs used 

 in earlier work. Short term adjustments of both 

 fish stocks and fishermen to altered parameters 

 must be scrutinized much more carefully. Simi- 

 larly, the usual analysis of yield functions, and 

 of bioeconomic models based on them, is cast in 

 terms of a single fishery, while most American 

 fishing gear either exploits more than one species 

 or is capable of doing so. Even before the eco- 

 nomic numbers to be used in a more complex 

 process model of this sort can be developed, it 

 is possible to derive a great deal of knowledge 

 of immediate benefit in assessing alternative 

 management regimes by framing appropriate 

 functional relations in model form and testing 

 their sensitivity to various assumptions as to 

 quantitative values. 



In short, it would be highly desirable to 

 develop a set of models specific to individual 

 fisheries but geared to a central common frame- 

 work that would permit comparison among 

 fisheries. Obviously, this will not be done in a 

 day or a year; but if a good start can be made in 

 isolating the functions that must be quantified 

 and delineating data requirements, the ultimate 

 payoff in terms of flexibility and low operating 

 cost will make possible a dynamic concept of 

 fisheries management that can really utilize 

 increases in scientific knowledge, improved 

 technology, and more flexible administrative 

 arrangements. 



THE FISHERIES 



The Pacific halibut operation is a mature fishery, 

 relatively simple in economic structure, and 

 employing only a single type of gear. It has 

 been under a carefully conceived regulatory 

 program for a sufficiently long period to gen- 

 erate excellent data on both biological and 

 economic variables. 



The Pacific salmon fishery stands at almost 

 the opposite extreme. It is complex in every 

 sense — biological and economic — that can 

 be imagined. It is subject to inherent data 

 limitations since it is based on populations that 

 are in constant short run disequilibrium, and 

 it is now regulated on such an irrational basis 

 that great improvement is possible with rela- 

 tively simple alterations in management tech- 

 niques. 



The California anchovy fishery, barely ex- 

 ploited at the present time, represents one of 

 the largest single latent resources available to 

 American flag fishermen. On the assumption 

 that present legal limitations on commercial 

 exploitation are removed, the potential physical 

 yield from the fishery is almost as great as the 

 total United States landed catch. The possibility 

 of creating a new and highly attractive industry 

 under controlled entry conditions is intriguing, 

 to say the least. Data on the California anchovy 

 are still rather limited, but the basic stock 

 information is being developed rapidly, and 

 both the biological and economic analysis can 

 borrow extensively from the broad experience 

 of the Peruvian anchoveta fishery. 



The king crab fishery of the North Pacific 

 presents a classic example of the speed with 

 which modern technology, under conditions of 

 open entry, can lead to overinvestment, over- 

 fishing, and potential economic disaster. In 

 addition, the hastily conceived regulations now 

 in effect present some of the worst examples of 

 efficiency-reducing techniques, coupled with 

 obvious efforts to redistribute income from one 

 set of fishermen to another. Data are woefully 

 inadequate in this fishery, but its economic 

 value and potential make it an excellent 

 case study. 



The four fisheries chosen for analysis were 

 selected for characteristics which make them 

 broadly representative of the kinds of problems 

 to be faced in future fishery management pro- 

 grams geared moreclosely to economic objectives. 



THE MODELING FRAMEWORK 



The simulation approach which serves as the 

 basis for the longer run aspects of this project 

 is hinged on a general model which is adaptable 



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