Production from the Sea 



Frederick W. Bell, Ernest W. Carlson, 

 and Frederick V. Waugh' 



ABSTRACT 



The sea constitutes a common property resource which causes factor productivity to 

 be heavily influenced by technological externalities. The sea is also subject to the spectre 

 of Malthusian scarcity since man cannot manipulate the ocean environment (Harnett and 

 Morse, 1963). We estimated the parameters using ordinary least squares of the dynamic 

 Schaefer production model of the intervention of man into the oceanic ecosystem. .\ 

 second production model for the sea to specify diminishing returns to capital and labor 

 for any fixed biomass was developed. The parameters of the latter model were estimated 

 by a computer search technique. The results indicate that the industry production 

 function for marine life is subject to diminishing physical returns to capital and labor. For 

 the cases considered in this study it also appears that the parabolic yield function 

 developed by Schaefer, assuming constant returns to factors inputs, is not as realistic 

 as a production function with diminishing returns to inputs with a given biomass. 



INTRODUCTION 



After explaining the principle of diminishing 

 returns in agriculture, that great economist, 

 Alfred Marshall (1920, p. 166) wrote: 



As to the sea, opinions differ. Its volume is vast, 

 and fish are very pi-olific; and some think that a 

 practically unlimited supply can be drawn from the 

 sea by man without appreciably affecting the numbers 

 that remain there; or in other words, that the law of 

 diminishing returns scarcely applies at all to sea- 

 fisheries; while others think that experience shows a 

 falling-off in the productiveness of those fisheries 

 that have been vigorously worked, especially by steam 

 trawlers. The question is important, for the future 

 population of the world will be appreciably affected 

 as regards both quantity and quality, by the available 

 supply offish. 



We have waited 50 years to answer Marshall's 

 question. We must not wait much longer. The 

 world's population will double by the year 2000. 

 What will happen to the production, prices, 

 and consumption offish (Bell etal., manuscript)? 



As in Marshall's day, some doubtless still 

 think that the future supply offish is practically 



' The authors are respectively Chief and Economist, 

 Economic Research Laboratory, National Marine 

 Fisheries Service, and Professor, Department of Agri- 

 cultural Economics, University of Mai-yland. The ideas 

 expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the 

 official position of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

 ."Administration (NOAA). 



unlimited. But those biologists and economists 

 who are studying fisheries doubt this. They 

 know that some species offish have already been 

 "overfished"; that is, increased inputs of capital 

 and labor have actually refh^cef/ yields. Examples 

 are menhaden and haddock in the Atlantic 

 fisheries. Biologists have found that the catches 

 of eastern tropical Pacific yellowfin tuna and of 

 northeastern Pacific halibut have reached their 

 "maximum sustainable yields." International 

 controls have been found necessary to prevent 

 depletion of the aforementioned species. 



Of course, these are only a few of the many 

 species of commercial fish. But we doubt if any 

 fishery biologist today would be among those 

 who Marshall said, "... think that a practically 

 unlimited supply can be drawn from the sea." 

 To be sure, the sea is vast, but Ryther (1969), a 

 prominent biologist, says: 



The open sea — 90'7r of the ocean and nearly three- 

 fourths of the earth's surface — is esentially a 

 biological desert. It produces a negligible fraction of 

 the world's fish catch at present and has little or no 

 potential for yielding more in the future. 



Upwelling regions, totaling no more than about 

 one-tenth of 1% of the ocean surface (an area roughly 

 the size of California) produce about half the world's 

 fish supply. The other half is produced in coastal 

 waters and the few offshore regions of comparably 

 high fertility. 



We could cite many other fishery biologists 



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