Paoer 8 



THE 1976 EL NINO |^ND RECENT PROGRESS 

 IN MONITORING AND PREDICTION 



Wi 1 1 i 3ir H . Qui nn ' 



INTRODUCTION 



In earlier papers^ the author (Quinn 1974^ 1976) presented 

 definitions and concepts regarding the El Nino phenomenon and a 

 method of predicting its occurrence utilizing Southern 

 Oscillation (S.O.) indices (pressure differences between sites 

 representing the Indonesian equatorial low and South Pacific 

 subtropical high) and other >/ariables. In 1975/ Quinn (1978) 

 predicted the 1976 El Nino type event. The prediction was 

 verified by an event of moderate intensity^ and indications from 

 data are disc^jssed here. 



New methods of handling pressure indices and other variables for 

 monitoring ana predicting El Nino are presented in this paper. 



CHANGES IN FILTER AND DATA APPLICATIONS 



In ea 

 S.O. 

 How ev 

 me an 

 runni 

 anoma 

 subt r 

 from 

 c h anq 

 Lost 

 we a I 

 anoma 

 t e chn 

 F i qur 

 (SST) 



r li e r p 

 i ndi ces 

 e r f in 



f i Iter 

 ng mean 

 lies 

 a ct i ng 



the i 

 e s (Fig 



with 

 so use 

 lies t 

 i ques 

 e 8.2 s 

 f sea I 



aper 

 i n 

 1976 

 (i 

 ve 

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 long 

 ndi V 

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 each 

 the 

 o g 

 are 

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s th 

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 less 

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app 



p lo 

 / an 



e 12 

 der 

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 8.1b) 

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 r as 

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made 

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 out 



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); 



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ith 



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ing 

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ter 



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 mean 



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look 



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appl 

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appl 

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 e i nte 

 of ti 

 runnin 

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 S . T 

 va r 

 e temp 

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ied to 

 at ions . 

 runn i ng 

 he 6-mo 

 ied to 

 ined by 

 fe rence 

 rannua I 

 me are 

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 index 

 he same 

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 er at u re 

 ator i a I 



'School of Oceanography/ Oregon State University/ Corvallis/ OR 

 97331 . 



93 



