Paper 8 



then to faLL off to a deeper trough in 1976. The analog selected 

 for this deve I opment was the 1964-65 situation. (There was a 

 rise from a shallow index trough in late 1963 to a small peak in 

 mid-1964/' then a fall to a deep trough in 1965 when an El Nino 

 occurred.) Heavy western equatorial Pacific precipitation was 

 called for in the latter half of 1976-early 1977. 



The e 

 in I 

 8.1b) 

 3S t 

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 1975- 

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 the 

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le 8.2 



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e 1972 



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e been 



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i s exp 



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for the 



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nds 

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s how 

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 used 

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ly 



mbe r 

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 76 



im i I 

 of 

 E I N 



ur red 

 (Fig. 

 al i es 



mean 

 SST 

 SST 

 nd i ng 

 e SST 

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 shows 



1976 

 at a 

 1977. 

 event 

 ar to 

 va r i- 

 ino . 



FURTHER OUTLDOK 



In the suiiimer of 1976/ the further outlook to the Coastal Upwell- 

 ing Ecosystem Analysis (CUEA) Peru project called for a hold-over 

 of the 1976 positive SST anomalies through February 1977 along 

 the Peruvian coast/ with a return to near normal coastal SST's by 

 March or April 1977. The analog given for the 1976-77 holdover 

 effect was the 1965-66 situation; however/ the 1976 onset was a 

 month or two Later (than in 1965) and the lag effect in 1977 was 

 also expected to be a month or two later (than in 1966). 



In retrospect/ Wyrtki et al. (1976) reported that a patch of the 

 warm water that crossed the equator in the southward 

 transgression of earLy 1975 had been cut off and remained south 

 of the equator. Monthly SST analyses'^ showed this warm body of 



^fisbioa iDfQ£!D3t joQ/ 1975 and 1976/ Southwest Fisheries Center/ 

 NMFS/ NOAA/ La JollaJ CA 9203S. 



96 



