Biological Laws and Social /'rof/rrss. 55 



tlucfiialcs only sli;;lilly from liinc to tiiiic, a 

 r.n.u-ahlc for additions. Siicli a condidon ( 

 or il may conlinnc indclinitcly. In llic fo 

 ililions, il may he followed by a new increase, wli 

 may load to actual decrease and linal extermination. 



In the case of man, the increase of population must ho limited finally hy 

 the su])ply of food and other necessities. In China and India, at the pres- 

 ent time, population varies directly with the fof)d supply. A similar condi- 

 tion, which existed in Japan for more than 150 years, was brought to an end 

 iiy contact with Western civilization and the adoption of AVestorn methods 

 and inventions. As a result, population in Japan increased 00 per cent, 

 from 1871 to 1915, and the increase still continues. A somewhat similar 

 change occurred in Europe after the Industrial Revolution. About 300 

 .\cars ago the population of Eux'Oiie had become stationary because of a 

 high death-rate due to war. famine and i)lagues. When the discoveries of 

 science made possible the control of devastating diseases and provided for 

 a more constant food supply, population increased rapidly. At the present 

 time, because of a declining birth-rate, population is again apjiroaching 

 e(|uilibrium. — a condition already reached in France. In England, between 

 1S71 and 1911, the rate of increase declined from 1..38 per cent, per annum 

 to 1 per cent, per annum, and the same tendency is evident in the rintod 

 States and elsewhere. According to East, the high cost of living, due to 

 decrease of the food supply, is the chief cause of this decline, but it is not 

 the only cause. 



Under conditions now existing in international affairs, when ndlitnry 

 strength is one of the chief concerns of nations, the present tendency of the 

 birth rate is naturally considered undesirable. If the population of France 

 h:id increased as rapidly as that of Germany after 1871. the Kaiser would 

 probably have hesitated to begin the world war in 1914. But the laws 

 which control population are not easily changed to satisfy national ambi- 

 tions or fears. It is well, therefore, to recognize the fact, that unless 

 science comes to the rescue with improved methods of food production, the 

 birth-rate of civilized nations must continue to decline until population be- 

 comes stationary. 



The deplorable feature of the situation, from a biological standpoint, is 

 the fact that the decline of the birtlv-rate is selective: it is greatest in those 

 classes of society, which by reason of heredity and education, should be ex- 

 l>ectO(l to contribute offspring of greatest value. Such conditions have not 

 Ikhmi confined to modern times. In the two centuries from 500 F>. ('. to .300 

 I'.. ('.. Greece produced a group of men whose achievements, judged hy 

 modern standards, indicate native ability of a high order. But the bril- 

 liant Athenian race declined, and many smaller groups. — families of states- 

 men, artists and scholars of later centuries, have completely disappeared. 

 Few families of this class, according to Broman. survive a period of 250 

 years. 



In these modern times, society takes the talented child and educates 

 him largely at public expense, in order that he may contribute something 

 of immediate value to the state, but the conservation of this talent for the 

 UM> of future generations is a matter in which society has taken little 

 interest. Man is wasteful of coal and of other resources of the earth, but 



