72 J. HOrKINSON — THE CHADWELL SPETNG 



below the average, the -winter of 1896-97 having been very wet. 

 The rainfall during the eighteen months ending 31st March, 1855, 

 on the other hand, was very small, the winter of 1853-54 having 

 been a dry one. During the eighteen months in the earlier period 

 28-27 inches of rain fell, and during the eighteen months in the 

 later period, 36-26 inches ; in the earlier period 11*15 inches below 

 the average, and in the later period only 3-16 inches below it. 

 Two years after this earlier and much severer drought, the 

 Engineer to the New River Company confirmed a statement made 

 by his predecessor five years before that the minimum flow of the 

 Chadwell Spring was 2,600,000 gallons per diem, while this recent 

 drought has reduced it to nothing. 



We have, however, no published record of the monthly flow of 

 the Chadwell Spring earlier than the year 1875. The excessively 

 dry winter of 1879-80 has already been considered. Since then 

 there have been two periods of small rainfall which may very well 

 be compared with that which we have just experienced. The 

 rainfall during the winter of 1887-88 was 11-34 inches, during 

 the summer and winter of 1887-88, 20-47 inches, and during the 

 winter, summer, and winter of 1886-88, 35-54 inches. In the 

 corresponding periods of 1889-91 the rainfall was 8-50 inches, 

 20-15 inches, and 31 '72 inches. And in the corresponding periods 

 of 1896-98, 7-82 inches, 18-97 inches, and 36-26 inches. The 

 smallest monthly flow of the Chadwell Spring in the summers 

 following these respective periods was, in the year 1888, 1,386,888 

 gallons per diem, in the year 1891, 562,588 gallons, and in the 

 year 1898, no7ie. 



If our underground reservoir were each year entirely dependent 

 upon the previous winter's rainfall for its supplies, we might 

 expect the Chadwell Spring to be rather lower than it was in the 

 summers of 1888 and 1891, but in that case it ought to have 

 suffered more in the summer of 1880. It is not so, however. It 

 has been argued that the present scarcity of water in the Chalk of 

 the Lea Yalley is the result of a very dry winter following 

 a number of dry years or dry winters, but that is not the case. If 

 we take the winter's rainfall in the water-supply engineer's period 

 of three years, it will be found that the defect in the last three 

 winters was not 1 per cent, of the mean, while for the three 

 winters ending 31st March, 1891, it was 20 per cent, of the mean. 

 In each of the four winters before the last one the rainfall was 

 considerably in excess of the mean, and not only was the winter of 

 1896-97 very wet, but the year ending 31st March was also. In 

 the last sixty-four years there have been only six wetter winters 

 and eight wetter years. 



The fact is that for the last four years we have been living in 

 a "Fool's Paradi.se" ; those of us at least who have relied upon 

 the Report of the Royal Commission of 1892. Our rivers and 

 wells have not suffered much, and, reassured by this fallacious 

 Report, we have thought that all was going on well, heedless of the 

 fact that we were having a wet time, or rather a succession of wet 



