40 KMfSAS Academy of science. 



mal, the most marked deficiency occurring on the South Pacific coast, where the 

 average rainfall amounted to but 16 per cent, of the normal for the month. In the 

 other districts the percentages of the normal were: Middle Pacific coast, 45 per 

 cent.; North Pacific coast, 89 per cent." 



"For May the average rainfall on the North Pacific coast was 2.9 inches, being .1 

 inch above the normal; on the Middle Pacific coast the rainfall was 2.5 inches, be- 

 ing 1.8 inches above the normal; and over the South Pacific region the rainfall 

 was .34 inch, being .05 inch below the normal." 



"In June the precipitation over the whole Pacific coast was below the normal, 

 over the North and South Pacific being only one-half the average, and over the Mid- 

 dle Pacific being 86 per cent." 



From these figures it may be considered that, of the three divisions into which 

 the Pacific coast is divided, Mr. Blake's prediction was fulfilled in one — the Middle 

 Pacific — and failed in the other two. 



4. That there will be a "cold spell" sometime in April, /. e., that a period of 

 colder weather than the average will follow a period of warm weather, is about as 

 certain as that there will be April showers, or snow in February. The fourth pre- 

 diction, therefore, may be taken simply as a cautionary warning that is always 

 applicable, or it may be meant to predict a cold spell of extraordinary severity. 



The actual weather was as follows: 



The lowest temperature in the State was 23° at Topeka, on one day. Prof. Snow, 

 of Lawrence, states that his lowest temperature was 35°; that a light frost did no 

 damage to peach buds; and that the weather throughout the month was highly 

 favorable to crops. 



Of 13 stations in eastern Kansas, five, and of 44 stations in middle and western 

 Kansas only one-quarter, had any weather below freezing. The mean temperature 

 for eastern Kansas, as well as for the whole State, was above the normal. The 

 Bulletin of the Kansas Weather Service for May 4th reports "the preceding week 

 a cold one for the season, with frosts in all but southeast counties; weather favorable 

 for wheat, rye and oats, but too cold for corn and garden vegetables." 



From these different statements it will be seen that if the prediction be taken to 

 mean a "cold snap" of more than usual severity, as seems to be indicated by its 

 prominence and by the 17° predicted for eastern Kansas, it was not a marked suc- 

 cess. But if it be considered to mean any cold wave, then it was completely fulfilled, 

 and Mr. Blake is entitled to all the credit which can be derived from it. In this case 

 the prediction is without question a valuable one, but it exhibits a good knowledge 

 of past weather rather than any special foreknowledge of the future. 



5. From the Monthly Weather Revieiv for July, I find that the temperature 

 throughout the country east of the Rocky Mountains was either about normal or 

 below normal, and for August the data at hand indicate that in general the summer 

 east of the Mississippi was cool, and west of the Mississippi ivarm or hot. This 

 prediction, therefore, is in the main unverified. 



6. Hot winds prevailed in Kansas on the 5th, 6th, 7th, 26th, 27th and 28th of July. 

 — State Weather Service. 



"Wallace: Hot winds in fore part of August ruined corn in some sections." — Re- 

 port on Condition of Crojos, Department of Agriculture. 



7. Of all the predictions made for 1889, no others are so often repeated and so 

 strongly emphasized as the prediction of an extraordinary summer drouth; and the 

 extracts that have been above given show the confidence with which the prediction 

 was made, and the importance which the author attached to it. This prediction may 

 therefore be considered to be pivotal in its character, and to contain a crucial test 

 of the whole system upon which the tables are constructed. Moreover, because of 



