President's Address. 59 



floods apparently never occurred to its citizens when the town was 

 first located. But during the early summer of 1908 one of those 

 terrific rainstorms came which covered the whole surface with from 

 four to six inches of water and the little stream was utterly incapa- 

 ble of carrying water away as fast as it should have done. As a 

 result, the streets of Frankfort were flooded, parts of the village 

 which presumably were on high ground were inundated, and even 

 a passing freight-train carrying live stock was stranded and the live 

 stock drowned while the cars were standing on the track. 



It is a combination of such extreme cases of rainfall that produces 

 our floods. If they have occurred in the past they may occur in 

 the future, and no matter what the improvement may be, or how 

 many drainage districts with corporate power may be called into 

 existence, now and then as time progresses these unfavorable com- 

 binations will occur and flood conditions will exist far beyond the 

 control of man. So long as we are unable to control the rainfall 

 and compel it to come somewhat at our pleasure just that long* 

 floods will come, river valleys will be covered with water, property 

 will be destroyed and human lives lost. Unfortunately, science 

 has not yet discovered the fundamental principles of meteorology. 

 No basic principles are known upon which may rest long-range 

 predictions of rainfall. We do not know whether next year will be 

 wet or dry, and if wet, whether excessively so. We cannot foretell 

 whether the heavy rains will come all at once over wide areas, caus- 

 ing the most disastrous floods of history, or very irregularly, so 

 that but slight damage will be done, One thing is sure, namely, 

 wherever a river flood- plain now exists it has been covered with 

 water from that stream. If so in the past, why not in the future, 

 and why not have a greater combination of heavy rains than ever 

 before and a greater flood than ever before ? So long as we remain 

 in such gross ignorance concerning the profound laws of meteor- 

 ology "just that long will we be in like ignorance regarding the 

 probabilities of unfavorable combinations which produce destruc- 

 tive floods. 



It seems most improbable that climatic conditions have changed 

 to any considerable degree in recent times, or that they will change 

 within the next thousand years sufficiently to have much influence 

 on floods ; and even should they change, the new conditions are 

 just as liable to be worse as to be better. It is the duty of the 

 scientist, therefore, to look at matters just as they are. From this 

 standpoint it seems practically certain that occasionally excessive 

 floods will come which will be so great that any and all the works 



