Art. XVI. — An Ai tempt to Estimate the Population of 

 Melbourne at the present time. 



By James Jamieson, M.D. 



[Eead 13tli September, 1894.] 



In a new country like Victoria ch;inges in the population are 

 rapid, not merely in the total number, but also in respect of its 

 constitution as regards age and sex. It is unfortunate that the 

 census is taken only at such long intervals as ten years, since 

 changes, which can hardly be estimated correctly, may have 

 taken place long before that period has elapsed. The Govern- 

 ment Statist, making the best use of data at his disposal, 

 publishes monthly statements of the vital statistics of Melbourne 

 and suburbs, and quartei-ly estimates of the population of the 

 whole colony. But, as he adnnts, his estimates are only probabil- 

 ities; because, though the number of births and deaths is matter 

 of actual record, and must be almost exact, the arrivals and 

 departures, by sea and across the border, cannot be known with 

 like exactness. At one time, therefore, the increase of population 

 may easily be gi-eater, and at another less than is supposed. 

 And if the totals for the whole colony are thus rather uncertain, 

 still more must there be liability to doubt about changes in the 

 distribution of the population in particular localities, unless some 

 careful local census is taken at short intervals. It is obvious to 

 anyone who travels about the city and its suburbs that there has 

 been a large reduction in the population of Melbourne during the 

 last two years at least. Mr. Hayter's calculation is that while, 

 at the census in Api-il, 1891, the number was 490,896, it had 

 fallen, on 31st December-, 189-3, to 444,832, a decrease of no 

 fewer than 46,064 persons in two and three-quarter years. In 

 arriving at his estimate for the later date, Mr. Hayter has to 

 depend on figures supplied by the municipal authorities in the 

 various districts. These figures again are not arrived at on any 

 uniform system. In some there is an actual rough census, taken 

 Ijy the officials when making valuations or collecting rates ; and 

 in others the calculation is based on the number of premises, 

 known or assumed to be unoccupied, allowance being made for the 

 average number of persons to each house, as ascertained at the 



