1 7G Proceedings of the Royal Society of Victoria. 



liirth rate, it is fair to assume that the actual population in the 

 lirst half of the present year, approached nearly to that which has 

 now been calculated out. 



It might be supposed that it would have been a safer pi'ocedure 

 to take the three years, 1890-92, as the basis of calculation as 

 supplying greater probability of a fair average. I do not tliink, 

 however, that this is actually the case. It would be necessary to 

 assume that the population of 1891 was the proper average of the 

 thi'ee years, and almost certainly this was not the case. For 

 tliough the population doubtless increased from 1890 to 1891, 

 there can be as little doubt that, instead of increasing further, it 

 liad already began to fall otf in 1892. This would introduce an 

 element of error into any calculation of either birth or death rate 

 for the three years. And, in the case of the death rate, there 

 would be another source of error, in the fact that 1890 was a 

 year with an exceptionally high mortality, as a glance at the 

 figures in Table II. sufficiently shows. 



But though the concurrence of results, on tlie two modes of 

 reckoning, is remarkable, it must be recognised that with each of 

 them there is liability to fallacy. In times of sevei'e depression 

 it is quite to be expected that there should be some lowering of 

 the birth rate, not of course very quickly produced, and mainly 

 by the previous production of a lowered marriage rate. There 

 has, in fact, been a large reduction in the number of marriages in 

 Melbourne recently, from 5172, in 1890, to 4872, in 1891 ; 4135 

 in 1892; and 3635 in 1893. This reduction in the marriages 

 doubtless came to affect, in some degree, the number of births, 

 though a reduction of about 500 marriages annually does not go 

 very far to account for an annual diminution of births of about 

 2000 in 1893 as compared with 1892; and of as many more, to 

 all appearance, in 1894. 



As was already said, there is even greater liability to fallacy 

 in using the death rate as a Ijasis of calculation. And it has to 

 be admitted that the public health was, on the whole, better in 

 the first half of the present year than in tlie earlier years of the 

 decade. It has been remarked in England that times of trade 

 <lepression ai"e commonly enough associated with a low rate of 

 mortality. In fact, depression in England or in Australia is 

 hardly such as to be a cause of disease or death to appreciable 



