Attempt to Estimate the Population of j\Ielboiirne. 177 



extent, as it shows itself to be in countries such as India, where 

 depression becomes actual famine. It is doubtful, indeed, 

 whether depression, such as we suffer from, has any very direct 

 influence on the public health. It is chiefly the degree of preva- 

 lence of epidemic diseases which causes variations of the death 

 rate, and some of these were more largely prevalent in 1890-92 

 than in the present year. A mere reduction of the number of 

 births, too, has a distinct eftect in lessening the death rate, the 

 )nortality among young infants being eight or nine times greater 

 than it is among the population as a whole. I do not wish to 

 load this paper with figures not strictly relevant to the main 

 issue, and will therefore content myself with these hints, and 

 admit that the death rate probably was lower in the flrst half of 

 1894, than in 1891. That calculations, based on the number of 

 deaths in that year are thus to some extent vitiated, may also be 

 admitted. But that the population of Melbourne has been 

 largely reduced in the present year, in addition to any previous 

 losses cannot be doubted. To get as small a number of births 

 and deaths as are now recorded we have to go back to 188G, 

 when the population, according to Mr. Haytei''s estimate, 

 amounted only to 371,630. It does not, therefore, seem to be 

 ;iu extravagant statenient, that the population of Melbourne and 

 suburbs, at the present time, cannot greatly exceed the 386,000, 

 which has, by calculation, been ai'rived at. 



But many persons will be found to say that a lessening of 

 population in the metropolis is not a thing to be greatly lamented, 

 if there has been a mere transfer to other parts of the colony. 

 A comparison of the births and deaths in the flist half of succes- 

 sive years, in Melbourne and suburbs on the one hand, and in all 

 the rest of the colony on the other, will help to show whether or 

 not this has been the case. 



