42 Forestry Quarterly. 



Ten years ago, the Chief Geographer of the United States 

 Geological Survey came out in print ' refuting the writer's con- 

 tention that a more conservative and rational forestry policy in 

 the United States was needed, because, he asserted, the relations 

 of forest growth to climatic, soil and water conditions are pre- 

 sumably of no practical significance, and because, in his opinion, 

 the timber growth in the United States is certainly renewing itself 

 much faster than it is being consumed. 



This year, by a peculiar irony of fate, the Chief Geographer, 

 now also in charge of the survey of the Federal forest reserva- 

 tions, furnishes as compiler of the Statistics of the Lumber In- 

 dustry, in the Twelfth Census,^ the most satisfactory data upon 

 which to discuss the supply question, and to prove his position of 

 ten years ago wrong. 



As I have pointed out elsewhere,^ both the gathering and the 

 interpretation of statistics of forest industries are beset with more 

 difficulties than are encountered in most other industries, largely 

 because of their very diversified character and the very scattered 

 and inaccessible locations of their sources. All census statistics 

 have the tendency to remain below the truth — ' ' some little pigs will 

 not let themselves be counted " — and the statistics of forest pro- 

 ducts are probably more subject to this defect than others. 



The final object of census statistics is, of course, to furnish 

 basis not only for comparison between the various industries, 

 bringing out their relative importance, but also to record the 

 progress of development from decade to decade. 



Unfortunately, for this last object e.specially, the absence of a 

 uniform method of enumeration from Census to Census, added to 

 the variable success of enumerators in securing information, ren- 

 der the data of uneven value ; a direct comparison would lead to 

 erroneous conclusions ; proper allowances must be made for de- 

 fects, variable from Census to Census, and only very general de- 

 ductions as to tendencies are admissible. 



With this warning against the mathematical use and interpreta- 

 tion of available forest statistics, we propose to present the data of 



'Washington Evening News, April i, 1893, and other places. 



' Vol. IX, XII Census, Selected Industries, pp. 805, 1902. 



'Quarterly Publication of the American Statistical Association, December, 



189S. 



