90 Forestry Qiia^ierly . 



tors to the timber product and the changes that have taken place 

 in this relative position, as far as the defective Census figures in- 

 dicate. At least, the general tendency of this change in the four 

 principal sections maj' be seen in this tabulation of the percentage 

 of total lumber production contributed by them : 



Northeastern Lake Southern Pacific 



Years. States. States. States. States. 



1850 54-5 6.4 13.8 3.9 



i860 36.2 13.6 16.5 6.2 



1870 36.8 24.4 9.4 3.6 



1880 24.8 33.4 II. 9 3.5 



1890 18.4 36.3 15.9 7.3 



1900 16.0 27.4 25.2 9.6 



As supplies gave out, the Northeastern States reduced their 

 cut ; as railroad development increased, the Lake States increased 

 their cut, until, in 1890, the highest mark was reached and the 

 decline began, the Southern States then increased their cut in 

 proportion. These changes in location are interesting and signifi- 

 cant, but, for our purpose of forecasting the future, we are con- 

 cerned only with the supplies as a whole. 



Since, owing to change in the standard of the commercial log, 

 owing to closer utilization and to more careful exploitation and 

 manufacture, supplies usuall}^ hold out longer than anticipated, it 

 will be perfectly .safe to accept the writer's higher estimate and 

 yet find the situation unsatisfactory. For, even, if we double this 

 estimate, it is apparent that with a cut of forty billion feet, in- 

 creasing at the rate of at least 5% per annum, we do not have 30 

 j^ears' supply of old stock in sight, a serious enough situation to 

 make desirable a more serious, statesmanlike and businesslike 

 consideration of the forestry problem than it has received hitherto. 



We admit that both the census compiler and the writer are 

 mainly guessing at the amount of standing timber, but there are 

 enough data at the basis of these guesses to render them worthy 

 of consideration. 



The Census brings the information that the stumpage on the 

 lumberman's holdings averages 6,700 feet B.M. per acre, or in 

 the Eastern States an average of .somewhat less than 5,000 feet, 

 and somewhat less than 25,000 feet in the Pacific States. The 

 compiler comments correctly, that "the average stand of timber 

 per acre, being that of selected tracts owned by lumbermen is, of 

 cour.se, higher than the average of the country or state." 



