Outlook of the Timber Supply. 91 



For the purpose of a possibility — not any more probability — cal- 

 culation we may assume that the entire forest area of the United 

 States at one time, say only fifty years ago, contained this aver- 

 age stand. With such extravagant assumptions we may be justi- 

 fied in assuming the area involved as 500 million acres, the poten- 

 tial timber area determined by the vi^riter, rather than the 700 

 million acres claimed by the U. S. Chief Geographer, in which 

 all waste land is included ; we would then find a total original 

 stand of 3350 billion feet. Assuming again that the consumption 

 of 40 billion at present, has grown to that amount by only a 3 

 per cent, rate, (instead of the more likely 5 per cent.), from the 

 original figure, then we would have had a total aggregate cut 

 during the 50 years of round 11 15 billion feet, and if the in- 

 creasing rate of consumption continued, the balance would be 

 used up in less than 35 years. 



The 250 million acres of farms cut out from the forest, mostly 

 wastefully logged and largely burned in log-rolling bees, may be 

 assumed to have furnished the requirements of the preceding 

 period. 



These probability calculations merely show that our guesses at 

 the amount of standing timber are not entirely unreasonable, and 

 they certainly lend color to the assertion, that unless very radical 

 changes in use and exploitation take place, our virgin supplies 

 will certainly be used up within less than a generation. But, to 

 be sure, according to the Chief Geographer, " timber growth in 

 the United States is certainlj^ renewing itself much faster than it 

 is being consumed." 



The certainty in this respect it would be even more difficult to 

 establish, than regarding the standing timber, but a probability 

 calculation is here also possible, by borrowing some figures from 

 the experience of a countrj^ where timber production is a well- 

 established business, and accurate statistics are available. 



In German State forest administrations, comprising some 10 

 million acres under good management, the production of timber- 

 wood (over 3 inch) has constantly increased in response to this 

 management, until now it may be stated in the large average, 

 with a rotation of about 100 years, as 43 cubic feet per acre per 

 year, of which 50 per cent., or round 22 cubic feet are saw log and 

 bolt size material ; these figures must be reduced by 15 to 25 per 



