OCEANOGRAPHY IN THE UNITED STATES 199 



conditions, and ice conditions, as well as factors of purely military 

 significance. This type of chart can be called hydroclimic, in contrast 

 to a chart which shows conditions as they exist on a particular day, 

 which we call a hydroptic chart. But we can go even further, and 

 prepare a chart showing conditions as we predict they will exist to- 

 morrow, next week, or (in some cases) even next month. These are 

 prognostic charts, and our first large-scale prooduction of them was 

 to show predicted ice conditions during the 1952 Arctic supply mis- 

 sions of the Military Sea Transportation Serive. By proper use of 

 this ice-forecasting service, which the Hydrographic Office has con- 

 tinued to provide, ice damage to ships and costs due to delays have been 

 cut from $17 million in 1951 to less than $1 million in 1957. And I 

 would like to add, not in this paper, sir, that the annual cost of this 

 effort rounds out at something less than $200,000, a very fine return 

 on our investment indeed. 



Another type of prognostic chart that has proved very valuable is 

 the wave chart. In Maury's time, sailing vessels were routed accord- 

 ing to expected winds and currents. Modern steamers, of course, move 

 independently of the wind, and ship speeds are now so much greater 

 than current speeds that, apart from exceptional cases, currents can 

 be ignored as a factor in ship routing. Waves, however, are quite 

 another story. Our studies show that adverse wave conditions make 

 necessary quite appreciable reductions m ship speeds, and therefore 

 it pays to send ships where waves are least detrimental. 



For the past 3 years we have provided the Militai*y Sea Transporta- 

 tion Service with recommended routings based on the prognostic wave 

 charts. The results were so favorable that MSTS cut one day ott" its 

 transatlantic passenger schedules at the beginning of 1958, and not a 

 single ship failed to meet the schedule that year. Besides this saving 

 in time and fuel consumption, there is increased passenger comfort 

 and reduced cargo damage. Over the past year for an expenditure of 

 $45,000 the Hydrographic Office has been able to save MSTS over 

 $1 million. Oceanography can be profitable. 



By a directive of the Secretary of the Navy in January 1956, these 

 prediction systems, as they are developed, are to be integrated into the 

 fleet weather central system. The Hydrographic Office will thus be 

 freed of the day to day preparation of routine forecasts and will be 

 able to concentrate its efforts on the development of new systems. 



The system most needed at present is for forecasting sonar condi- 

 tions. Research and development funds are currently being used in 

 this program, and we are confident of obtaining support in future 

 yeafs on a level that will yield useful results within a reasonable time. 

 The availability of a sonar forecasting system in wartime is a matter 

 of great significance, since on it will depend much of the success of our 

 defenses against submarines, and this in turn will affect the rate of 

 merchant ship losses and the conduct of convoy operations. 



The prediction of movement of radioactive substances in the sea, 

 whether from tests, from peaceful applications such as the proposed 

 Plowshare operations, or from nuclear weapons or disasters to re- 

 actors, is another field that we are entering and in which we believe 

 that our accumulated know-how gives promise of early obtainment 

 of useful results. 



