ENEKGY FROM FOSSIL FUELS 



By M. King Hubbert 



Associate Director 



Exploration and Production Research Division 



Shell Oil Co., Inc. 



INTRODUCTION 



It is difficult for those of us living today, especially in the more 

 industrialized areas of the world, to appreciate fully the uniqueness 

 of the events that we are witnessing. During our lifetime, and in the 

 immediately preceding century whose history is most fanuliar to us, 

 we have witnessed continuous change — usually continuous increase. 

 We have seen a few European immigrants to North America expand 

 during a few centuries into a population of over 170 millions. We 

 have seen villages grow" into large cities. We have seen an area of 

 primeval forests and prairies transformed into widespread agricul- 

 tural developments. We have seen a transition from a handicraft and 

 agrarian culture to one of complex industrialization. In only a fe^v 

 generations we have witnessed the transition from human and animal 

 power to electrical power supernetworks ; from the horse and buggy 

 to the airplane. 



At the same time our senses have been dulled by the platitude that 

 history repeats itself. As a consequence, we have become so inured 

 to change, especially to growth and to increase, that it is difficult for 

 us not to regard the rates of change which we are now witnessing as the 

 normal order of things. 



In order to appraise more accurately our present position and the 

 limitations which may be imposed upon our future, it is well that we 

 consider in historical perspective certain fundamental relationships 

 that underlie all our activities. Of these the most general are the 

 properties of matter and those of energy. 



From such a point of view the earth may be regarded as a material 

 system whose gain or loss of matter over the period of our interest is 

 negligible. Into and out of this system, however, there is a con- 

 tinuous flux of energy, in consequence of which the material constit- 

 uents of the surface of the earth underiro continuous or intermittent 



' Reprinted by permission from Science, vol. 109, February 4, 1949, with additions and revisions by the 

 author. 



255 



