ENERGY FROM FOSSIL FUELS — HUBBERT 271 



It is clear, therefore, that our present position on the nearly vertical 

 front slopes of these curves is a precarious one and that the events we 

 are witnessing and experiencing, far from being "normal," are among 

 the most abnormal and anomalous in the history of the world. Yet 

 we cannot turn back; neither can we consolidate our gains and remain 

 where we are. In fact, we have no choice but to proceed into a future 

 that we may be assured will differ markedly from anything we have 

 experienced thus far. 



Among the inevitable characteristics of this future will be the pro- 

 gressive exhaustion of the mineral fuels and the accompanying trans- 

 fer of the material elements of the earth from naturally occurring 

 deposits of high concentration to states of low-concentration dissem- 

 ination. Yet despite this, it will still be a physical possibility to sta- 

 bilize the human population at some reasonable figure and by means 

 of the energy from sunshine alone to utilize low-grade concentrations 

 of materials and still maintain a high-energy industrial civilization 

 indefinitely. 



Whether this possibility will be realized or whether we shall con- 

 tinue as at present until a succession of crises — overpopulation, ex- 

 haustion of resources, and eventual decline — develops depends largely 

 upon whether a serious cultural lag can be overcome. In view of the 

 rapidity with which the transition to our present state has occurred 

 it is not surprising that such a cultural lag should exist and that we 

 should continue to react to the fundamentally simple physical, chem- 

 ical, and biological needs of our social complex with the sacred-cow 

 behavior patterns of our agrarian and prescientific past. However, 

 it is upon our abilit}^ to eliminate this lag and to evolve a culture more 

 nearly in conformity with the limitations imposed upon us by the basic 

 properties of matter and energy that the future of our civilization 

 largely depends. 



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4. Lotka, Alfred J., Elements of physical biology, chs. 6 and 7. Baltimore, 1925. 



5. Pearl, Raymond, The biology of population growth. New York, 1925. 



6. Carr-Saunders, A. M., World population, p. 42. Oxford, 1936. 



7. Davis, Kingsley, The world demographic transition. Ann. Amer. Acad. 



Polit. and Soc. Sci., vol. 237, pp. 1-11, January 1945. 



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